半導體產業台商遷移中國之區位研究

Modeling Locations of Taiwan Semiconductor Firms in China

10.29688/MHJ.201208.0012

蔡璧徽(Bi-Huei Tsai)；李晏肇(Yen-Chao Lee)

Bass模型 ； 半導體產業 ； 區位優勢理論 ； 群聚 ； Bass model ； Semiconductor industry ； Location theory ； Cluster theory

明新學報

38卷2期（2012 / 08 / 01）

169 - 181

繁體中文

本研究以Bass擴散模型為基礎，以台灣積體電路（integrated circuit, IC）設計產業赴群聚華東地區為研究主軸，比較IC設計在中國大陸的華東、華北、華南、西南地區群聚區位的差異，並將IC設計、IC製造、IC封裝三個產業在華東地區群聚特性作進一步剖析。本研究以動態模型係一階非線性微分方程，利用最小平方法求解並進行參數預估，進而建構傳統迴歸模型，分析模型預估參數：最大投資潛量、創新係數、模仿係數之間的差異。研究結果顯示，台灣IC設計廠商視同儕產業重心移轉中國而跟進投資中國設廠，台商間相繼赴中國投資所形成的內部影響因子是決定台商群聚中國各地的關鍵因素，亦即廠商群聚的關鍵因素影響力均大於中國對台商招商的吸引力。本研究進一步比較各地區最大投資潛量、創新係數與模仿係數，華東地區三大產業IC設計、IC製造、IC封測產業中，IC製造與IC封測廠商間模仿其他廠商赴中國投資的程度均大於IC設計廠商，研究結果隱含IC封測廠商或IC製造商若在當地設廠，上游設備商與原料供應商會相繼在中國設據點，吸引更多台灣IC封測廠赴該地區直接投資，顯示競爭廠商的知識外溢效果，支持Marshall（1892）假說。反之，IC設計廠對上游設備商與原料商的仰賴不及IC封測廠或IC製造廠，故IC設計產業模仿程度較低，顯示不同產業的台商赴中國投資行為有所差異。而在IC設計產業，研究顯示華東地區與華南地的潛在市場最大，此結果與區位優勢理論一致。

In this study, we use the Bass diffusion model to analyze the locations of Taiwanese semiconductor firms in China. This study focuses on the Taiwanese integrated circuit (IC) design industry in East China. We use investment amount of Taiwanese semiconductor firms from Taiwan to China as the semiconductor clustering degree. Taiwanese IC design firms cluster together in various regions in China, so this work compares the difference in clustering speed and size among the Taiwanese IC design industrial clusters in East-China, North-China, South-China and South-West-China. Furthermore, we focus on the firms which invest in East-China and divide these firms into three sub-industries: IC design, IC manufacturing, IC test and packaging industries. This study compares their clustering characteristics among various sub-industries. The empirical result reveals that IC design firms mainly follow other firms to invest in China. Their investment decision is affected by the imitation behaviors. IC manufacturing industry and IC test and packaging industry are more influenced to invest in China by tendency of imitations than IC design industry. Consistent with location theory, the potential size of Taiwanese IC design clusters is larger in South-China and East-China than in other regions. These findings can provide global semiconductor enterprises a valuable insight about China's semiconductor clustering characteristics.

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