兩岸水污染防治法令變動對台灣環境相關產業股價影響之研究

The Effects of Cross-Strait Water Pollution Prevention and Control Regulations on the Stock Prices of Taiwan's Environment Related Industries

蔡璧徽(Tsai Bi Huei)；林宣儒(Lin Syuan Ru)

兩岸 ； 經濟 ； 環境產業 ； 企業社會責任 ； 市場模型 ； Cross-Strait ； Economy ； Environmental Industry ； Corporate Social Responsibility ； Market Model

明新學報

44卷1期（2020 / 12 / 01）

62 - 79

繁體中文

本研究為探討兩岸水污染防治法令變動對台灣環境相關產業股價影響，針對2015年與2017年台灣、中國頒布水汙染防治法令修正事件，蒐集環境相關產業包括台灣鋼鐵、塑膠與水泥產業的股票價格，以事件日分析法研究台灣鋼鐵、塑膠與水泥工業之股價反應，並採用變異數分析和回歸分析驗證台灣與中國水汙染防治法令對這些產業造成的影響有顯著差異。研究結果發現台灣水汙染防治法令修正頒布禁止繞流排放汙水的消息曝光將使台灣鋼鐵、塑膠、水泥產業出現負向異常報酬，隱含台灣明文禁止繞流排放汙水，鋼鐵、水泥與塑膠產業得改善設備或修改生產流程以符合規範，成本勢必大大提升，投資人因而將持股賣出，造成事件日出現顯著負向異常報酬，驗證台灣禁止繞流汙水的法令會加重台灣企業社會責任。此外，中國水汙染防治法令頒布加強嚴格實施總量控制防治汙水的消息曝光將使台灣鋼鐵、塑膠、水泥產業出現正向異常報酬。研究結果隱含中國環保法令之通過將造成轉單效應，促使投資人對台灣鋼鐵、塑膠、水泥產業前景感到樂觀，因而選擇買進相關股票，這些公司產生正向異常報酬。尤其，變異數分析結果顯示中國和台灣水汙染防治法令頒布對台灣鋼鐵、塑膠與水泥產業之股價影響差異顯著。台灣與中國水汙染防治法令頒布時，台灣鋼鐵、塑膠與水泥產業銷貨毛利成長率越高，股價上漲幅度越大。

This study is to elucidate the impact of changes in water pollution prevention and control laws across the Taiwan Strait on the stock prices of Taiwan's environmental industries. The environmental industries include Taiwan's steel, plastic and cement industries in this study. This study collects the amendments to the Water Pollution Prevention and Control Act issued by Taiwan and China in 2015 and 2017, and analyzes the market reactions of Taiwan's steel, plastic and cement industries using the event study method. Also, this investigation explores whether there is a significant difference in abnormal returns of Taiwan's steel, plastics and cement industries caused by Taiwanese and Chinese water pollution related regulations using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression analysis. The results show that the revisions of Taiwan's water pollution prevention and control regulations cause negative abnormal returns to Taiwan's steel, plastics and cement industries. When Taiwan prohibits the discharge of sewage by bypassing the stream, the steel, cement and plastic industries have to improve equipment or modify production processes to comply with regulations, so operation costs and corporate responsibility tend to inevitably increase. Investors will therefore sell their holdings of Taiwan's steel, plastics and cement industries, causing significantly negative abnormal returns. In addition, the announcement of China's water pollution prevention and control regulations will cause positive abnormal returns to Taiwan's steel, plastics and cement industries. It implies that Chinese environmental protection laws cause an order-transfer effect and stimulate the investors to be optimistic about the prospects of Taiwan's steel, plastics, and cement industries, and therefore choose to buy stocks of these industries, prompting these companies to generate positive abnormal returns. Furthermore, the ANOVA results show the significant difference in abnormal returns caused by Taiwanese and Chinese water pollution prevention and control regulations. Particularly, gross profit growth is significantly and positively related to abnormal returns caused by Taiwan's and China's revisions of water pollution prevention and control regulations.

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