跨國水域管理之政治分析：以鹹海盆地爲例

Political Analysis on Managing Transnational Waters of the Aral Sea Basin

10.29796/ARE.200712.0002

于蕙清(Hui-Ching Yu)

鹹海 ； 中亞 ； 水資源管理 ； 國際援助 ； 社會控制 ； Aral Sea ； Central Asia ； water management ； international aid ； social control

農業與資源經濟

4卷2期（2007 / 12 / 01）

25 - 48

繁體中文

在不到四十年的時間裡，中亞見證了曾爲全球第四大內陸水體的鹹海日漸乾涸。蘇聯當局引入阿姆河與錫爾河的水於棉花灌溉，以此爲迅速成長的人口提供就業機會，此後鹹海便快速地乾涸。到了1980年代，水資源危機日漸顯著。在國際組織之介入下，蘇聯解體後五國簽署了許多拯救鹹海之協定。然而他們仍十分仰賴承襲自蘇聯時期的水管理制度，這套制度以其無效率與破壞環境而聞名於世。水管理系統和棉花單作成爲政治與社會控制之機制，故菁英們並無意改變之。因爲西方捐助單位與中亞領導人均視穩定爲首要任務，故國際社會無意強迫中亞遵守改革之建言。諷刺的是，正因爲有國際之援助，使中亞政府可以中止或推遲引進必要的改革計畫。本文結論指出，若未採行實質行動，鹹海將在不久後自地球上消失。

In less than 40 years, Central Asia has witnessed the drying up of Aral sea, once the fourth biggest inland water body in the world. As the Soviet authorities diverted water from the feeders -Amu darya and Syr darya- for cotton irrigation and providing employment for a fast growing population, the sea rapidly desiccated. The water crisis became more pronounced in the 1980s. Although the five republics, with the involvement of international organizations, signed many new agreements to save the Aral Sea after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they have to a large extent been dependent on the previous water management institution inherited from the old time, which is notoriously for its inefficient and environmentally devastatingly. The system of water management and cotton monoculture supply a mechanism for political and social control, so the elites do not have any intention to change it. Because stability was the preferred option for both Western donors and Central Asians leaders, the international community was unwilling to push the Central Asian countries to adhere to the advice to reform. Ironically, owing to the international aid, Central Asian governments were able to suspend or even delay introducing necessary reform programs. The conclusion is that Aral Sea could completely disappear in the near future, if no real action is taken.