台灣家庭計畫之轉折與政策經驗

The Transition of and Lessons from Taiwan's Family Planning Program

10.29629/TEFP.200203.0003

孫得雄(T.H. Sun)；陳肇男(C.N. Chen)；李棟明(T.M. Lee)

家庭計畫 ； 生育率 ； 成本效益 ； 評價 ； family planning ； fertility ； cost-benefit ； evaluation

臺灣經濟預測與政策

32卷1期（2002 / 03 / 01）

25 - 76

繁體中文

本文之目的有二。一是記錄家庭計畫轉折期（66年至79年）所做的各項修訂，並分析其效果。其次是通盤檢討三個家庭計畫推行期所取得的政策經驗。 轉折期之重要成果有如下幾項： 1.完成緩和人口成長之政策目標。民國73年時，台灣地區人口的淨繁殖率已降至人口學上的「替代水準」。亦即數十年後的台灣人口將不再增加。 2.年輕婦女之避孕接受率及間隔生育爲目的之比例大幅提升。而曾經避孕的比例也提高很多。 3.人力投入效果大幅增加爲每一工作人日可避免1.74個出生，約爲前期(0.67)之2.6倍。 4.人力投入效果之提升也使得避免出生的成本持續滑落（以民國75年幣值或累積成本而言）。 5.避孕實行率已接近全民避孕的目標。 6. 20〜24歲組的生育率大幅下降。民國80年時，頭胎及第二胎以下出生所佔比例已高佔所有出生的78.7%。 推行家庭計畫所取得的政策經驗也有如下六項： 1.降低生育率的相關學理檢討。 2.評價及研究工作與工作推行策略之互動。 3.如何突破禁忌，導致政策的形成與頒佈。 4.大規模推行計畫的成功要因。 5.成功的人口政策對社經的衝擊。 6.政策的生命週期。 其中第1，項係在現有的文獻中增加政策執行之行政要素。第3，4，5項純爲執行心得之歸納。第6項則是從台灣家庭計畫之檢討中提出新的理論構想。

This paper serves two purposes. One is to record activities of Taiwan's family planning program in the final transitional stage. It focuses on the modification of operation and evaluation approaches that are implemented in this stage and the analysis of the cost-benefit. The other purpose is to review what lessons have been learned from the three stages of Taiwan's family planning program. The major accomplishments of Taiwan's family planning program in its final transitional stage are as follows: 1. To achieve the goal of slowing down population growth. By 1984, Taiwan's NRR was already below the replacement level. In other words, Taiwan's population will stop increasing in the next several decades. 2. Both the rate of contraceptive practice and the proportion of aiming for birth spacing for young women have drastically increased. In addition, the rate of those who have used contraceptives has also increased substantially. 3. The effect of human capital input has largely increased to 1.74 births per working day. It is about 1.6 times greater than the effect from its previous stage. 4. The increasing effectiveness of human capital input has led to the decrease in cost for birth prevention (in terms of 1986 prices or cumulative cost). 5. The contraceptive practice rate has almost reached the goal of a complete contraceptive society. 6. The fertility rate of the age-group 20-24 has substantially decreased. The proportion of first and second births accounts for 78.7% of total births. Six lessons have been learned from Taiwan's family planning program, finding: 1. A critical evaluation on existing fertility theories. 2. The interaction between evaluation and research activities and family planning promotion strategies. 3. How to break the taboo, resulting in the formation and promulgation of family planning policy. 4. The critical factors for a successful family planning campaign. 5. The social-economic influence of a successful family planning program. 6. Life cycle stages of a successful social policy. Items 1 and 2 focus on proposing important administrative factors beyond current literature. Items 3, 4, and 5 are the induction of successful program implementation factors. Item 6 proposes a new theory on public policy based on Taiwan's family planning program.

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