Is Taiwan's 10(superscript th) Business Cycle Over Yet? A Simple Note

臺灣第十次景氣循環是否已經結束？

10.29629/TEFP.200310.0002

陳仕偉(Shyh-Wei Chen)

景氣對策信號 ； 景氣循環 ； 馬可夫轉換單因子模型 ； monitoring indicator ； business cycle ； Markov-switching factor model

臺灣經濟預測與政策

33卷2期（2003 / 10 / 01）

39 - 60

英文

台灣最近正經歷一次嚴重的經濟衰退，影響層面甚廣，社會大眾皆關心台灣經濟何時才能脫離這次嚴重的不景氣，轉而邁入經濟復甦？本文嘗試回答上述問題。根據經建會所編制之「景氣對策信號」資料，並透過嚴謹的計量模型（馬可夫轉換模型），本文的實證結果發現不管是樣本內或樣本外之預測結果，台灣第十次的景氣循環週期始於2000年9月，而於2001年10月結束。換言之，台灣第十次景氣循環的持續期間約為14個月，台灣目前的經濟情勢應該已脫離這次嚴重的不景氣。

This paper plans to answer the question: How and when will we know whether Taiwan’s latest recession is over? We employ a monitoring indicator in terms of the Markov-switching factor model to evaluate the in-sample and out-of-sample performances. The empirical results suggest that, for both real-time probabilities and smoothed probabilities of the monitoring indicator growth rate in terms of the Markov-switching factor model, the 10(superscript th) business cycle started in September 2000 and ended in October 2001. In addition, both the in-sample and out-of-sample posterior probabilities predict the duration period for the 10(superscript th) business cycle lasted only about 13 or 14 months.

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1. 陳仕偉(2005)。再探台灣景氣循環轉折點之認定：兼論台灣第十次的循環日期。中國統計學報，43(4)，387-406。
2. (2007)。國際油價、股市與景氣循環之相關分析－馬可夫轉換向量誤差修正模型的運用。永豐金融季刊，39，121-171。