不確定環境下的洪災保險供給決策

The Decision Process of Flood Insurance Supply under Uncertainty

10.29629/TEFP.200703.0003

洪鴻智(Hung-Chih Hung)；洪嘉宜(Jia-Yi Hung)

不確定性 ； 天然災害 ； 洪災保險供給 ； 風險趨避 ； 預期效用 ； Expected utility ； Flood insurance supply ； Natural hazards ； Risk aversion ； Uncertainty

臺灣經濟預測與政策

37卷2期（2007 / 03 / 01）

75 - 110

繁體中文

本文主要目的，在分析保險業者對於洪災保險承保的意願、特性及分析影響保費水率決策的重要因素。透過對產業保險核保與精算人員的問卷調查，藉由三種效用引出法的分析結果，發現洪災險虧損發生機率的不確定，確實會降低承保意願。不管一般產物險確定獲利或存在風險，可發現受訪者對於洪災險皆會要求更高的費率，而呈現模糊趨避現象。另對於保費水率決策影響因素的分析，發現影響保費決策的因素非常多元，包含對於洪災的風險知覺與損失成本、政府的減災配套措施與保險公司的風險忍受能力，而不僅傳統強調的災害損失發生機率與預期災害損失程度。特別當災害損失發生機率不確定時，政府災害資訊公開程度與保險業的風險忍受力，更是決定保費水率的關鍵。

The main purpose of this article is to investigate the underwriting attitudes toward the provision of flood insurance policy and to provide some empirical evidence with respect to the premium-setting decisions on providing flood insurance. We conducted a questionnaire survey about premium-setting behaviour by asking primary-insurance underwriters and actuaries through using three utility elicitation methods. The findings show that the respondents have lower willingness to sell insurance when ambiguity about probability of loss is introduced. However, the respondents would always charge higher premium levels for flood insurance than for normal property insurance, which reveals a behavioral characteristic of risk-aversion. Several factors would highly affect the premium-setting behaviour. These factors consist of the flood risk perception, the flood hazard relief measures from government, and the risk-bearing capacity of the insurer, rather than just probability and expected disaster losses involved.

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