Technology Advantage and Home-Market Effect: A Poisson QuasiMaximum Likelihood Estimation

技術優勢和本國市場效果：卜瓦松準最大概似估計模型

黃幼宜(Yo-Yi Huang)；黃登興(Deng-Shing Huang)

本國市場效果 ； 技術優勢 ； 引力模型 ； 卜瓦松準最大概似估計 ； Home-market effect ； Technology advantage ； Gravity equation ； Poisson quasi maximum likelihood estimation

臺灣經濟預測與政策

46卷2期（2016 / 03 / 01）

1 - 44

英文

根據新貿易理論的本國市場效果(home -market effects)，自由貿易會使大國擴大其市場占有率，對小國則造成製造業萎縮，極端情況則整個產業消失。本文旨在分析和檢視技術優勢如何影響所謂的本國市場效果。技術效果可以分為兩個層次：一者為因為技術優勢使得成本較低，產出提高的直接效果；其二則是透過貿易後廠商得以存活的間接效果。據此，本文利用引力模型之卡瓦松準最大概似估計來驗證技術優勢對本國市場效果的影響，我們選定11個不同屬性的產業，即傳統勞力密集的紡織成衣業、具經濟規模的運輸機具產業，以及最技術密集的半導體產業等。我們的實證結果發現：(1)不同屬性產業所反映之本國市場效果程度不一；(2)技術密集產業愈可能出現本國市場效果被抵銷情況，而且直接和間接技術效果均有相同結果；亦即對於技術密集型產業來說，當出口國具有相對技術優勢， 將促使該國有更多的出口。

According to the conventional home-market effect, free trade tends to shrink the market share for a small economy with differentiated manufacturing goods, and in the extreme leads to a complete hollowing-out of the industry in a small economy. This paper considers the technology difference between countries using the standard Helpman-Krugman model. We will show that the home-market effect can be offset and even reversed if the smaller economy is characterized by better technology. The effect of a technology advantage is composed of two parts: a direct effect from lower unit costs that lead to a higher output level of each firm, and an indirect effect through a change in terms of which firms survive after trade. Based on theoretical results, we derive the gravity equation to conduct empirical tests on the hypothesis of the home-market effect, and direct and indirect technology effects using the US patent stock of 2002 for eleven industries ranging from the most technology-intensive industry to the most labor-intensive apparel and clothing industry. Empirical results show that the degree of the home-market effect varies from industry to industry. The reversal of the home-market effect is more likely to occur in technology-intensive industries. Consistently, direct and indirect technology effects also occur in the industries with a reversed home-market effect.

1. Balistreri, E. J. and R. H. Hillberry (2001), “Trade Fricitions and Welfare in the Gravity Model: How Much of the Iceberg Melts?” Mimeo, U. S. International Trade Commission.
2. Hummels, D. (1999), “Toward a Geography of Trade Costs,”Mimeo, University of Chicage
3. Anderson, J. A.,van Wincoop, E.(2003).Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle.American Economic Review,93,170-192.
4. Baier, S. L.,Bergstrand, J. H.(2001).The Growth of World Trade: Tariff, Transport Costs, and Income Similarity.Journal of International Economics,53,1-27.
5. Behrens, K.(2005).Market Size and Industry Location: Traded vs Non-Traded Goods.Journal of Urban Economics,58,24-44.
6. Bergstrand, J. H.(1989).The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade.Review of Economics and Statistics,71,143-153.
7. Bergstrand, J. H.(1985).The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Fundations and Empirical Evidence.Review of Economics and Statistics,67,473-481.
8. Branstetter, L.(2006).Is Foreign Direct Investment a Channel of Knowledge Spillovers? Evidence from Japan's FDI in the United States.Journal of International Economic,68,325-344.
9. Crozet, M.,Trionfetti, F.(2008).Trade Costs and the Home Market.Journal of International Economics,76,309-321.
10. Davis, D.(1998).The Home Market, Trade, and Industrial Structure.American Economic Review,88,1264-1276.
11. Davis, D.,Weinstein, D. E.(2003).Market Access, Economic Geography and Comparative Advantage: An Empirical Test.Journal of International Economic,59,1-23.
12. Dixit, A.,Stiglitz, J.(1977).Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity.American Economic Review,67,297-308.
13. Egger, P.,Staub, M. E.,Winkelmann, R.(2011).The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements.American Economic Journal: Economic Policy,3(3),113-143.
14. Feenstra, R. C.(2003).Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence.Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press.
15. Feenstra, R. C.(2002).Border Effects and the Gravity Equation: Consistent Methods for Estimation.Scottish Journal of Political Economy,49,491-506.
16. Feenstra, R. C.,Markusen, J. R.,Rose, A. K.(2001).Using the Gravity Equation to Differentiate among Alternative Theories of Trade.Canadian Journal of Economics,34,430-447.
17. Forslid, R.,Wooton, I.(2003).Comparative Advantage and the Location of Production.Review of International Economics,11(4),588-603.
18. Hall, B.,Jaffe, A.,Trajtenberg, M.(2001).NBER Working PaperNBER Working Paper,未出版
19. Hanson, G.,Xiang, C.(2004).The Home Market Effect and Trade Patterns.American Economic Review,94,1108-1129.
20. Harrigan, J.(1996).Openness to Trade inManufactures in the OECD.Journal of International Economics,40,23-39.
21. Head, K.,Mayertt, T.,Ries, J.(2002).On the Pervasiveness of HomeMarket Effects.Economica,69,371-390.
22. Head, K.,Ries, J.(2001).Increasing Returns versus National Product Differentiation as an Explanation for the Pattern of U.S.-Canada Trade.American Economic Review,91,858-876.
23. Helpman, E.,Krugman, P.(1985).Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International Economy.Cambridge, MA:MIT Press.
24. Holmes, T. J.,Stevens, J.J.(2005).Does HomeMarket SizeMatter for the Pattern of Trade?.Journal of International Economics,65(2),489-505.
25. Huang, Y. Y.,Huang, D. S.(2011).Technology Advantage and Home-Market Effects: an Empirical Investigation.Journal of Economic Integration,26(1),81-109.
26. Huang, Y. Y.,Lee, C. T.,Huang, D. S.(2014).Home-Market Effects in the Chamberlinian-RicardianWorld.Bulletin of Economic Research,66,36-54.
27. Krugman, P.(1979).Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition and International Trade.Journal of International Economics,94,469-479.
28. Krugman, P.(1980).Scale Economies, ProductDifferentiation, and the Pattern of Trade.American Economic Review,70,950-959.
29. Lai, H.,Zhu, S. C.(2006).The Determinants of Bilateral Trade.Canadian Journal of Economics,37(2),120-137.
30. Pham, C. S.,Lovely, M. E.,Mitra, D.(2014).The Home-Market Effect and Bilateral Trade Patterns: A Reexamination of the Evidence.International Review of Economics and Finance,30,120-137.
31. Redding, S.,Venables, A.J.(2004).Economic Geography and International Inequality.Journal of International Economics,62,53-82.
32. Ricci, L.(1999).Economic Geography and Comparative Advantage: Agglomeration versus Specialization.European Economics Review,43,357-377.
33. Santos Silva, J. M. C.,Tenreyro, S.(2006).The Log of Gravity.The Review of Economics and Statistics,88,641-658.
34. Schumacher, D.,Siliverstovs, B.(2006).Home-Market and Factor-Endowment Effects in a Gravity Approach.Review ofWorld Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),142(2),330-353.
35. Siliverstovs, B.,Schumacher, D.(2009).Estimating Gravity Equations: To Log or Not to Log?.Empirical Economics,36,645-669.
36. Yu, Z.(2005).Trade, Market Size, and Industrial Structure: Revisiting the Home-Market Effect.Canadian Journal of Economics,381,255-272.