券商分析師樂觀盈餘預測與所屬券商自營部門買賣超之關連性

The Connection between Securities Analysts' OptimisticEarnings Forecasts and the Affiliated Dealer Department's Operation

10.30139/JACG.201012.0001

林問一(Wen-Yi Lin)；賴紀誠(Chi-Cheng Lai)

券商分析師 ； 樂觀盈餘預測 ； 認知失誤 ； 有意圖 ； Security analyst ； Optimistic earnings forecasts ； Cognitive failure ； Intentional

會計與公司治理

7卷2期（2010 / 12 / 01）

1 - 18

繁體中文

本文主要探討券商分析師對台灣地區上市櫃公司發佈盈餘預測時，所出現的樂觀盈餘預測是否是因為分析師本身的認知失誤，抑或是基於某些誘因下的有意圖的行為。結果發現：大多數券商分析師會作出樂觀的盈餘預測，而且所隸屬之自營部門會在此樂觀預測公佈後有明顯的賣超個股情形。這個結果雖無法全然排除分析師樂觀預測是由其本身的認知失誤所造成，但可證實券商分析師樂觀的盈餘預測應是有意圖下的行為。

This study investigates Taiwan securities analysts' optimistic earnings forecasts are due to the analysts' cognitive failure or incentive-driving. We find that most of securities analysts will provide optimistic earnings forecasts, and the affiliated dealer department will start selling out the stocks after forecasts announcement. Although we can't exclude the probability that analysts' optimistic earnings forecasts come from their own cognitive failure, this result could confirm the optimistic forecasts by analysts are most likely to be intentional.

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