從情報策略看美中的協作與協調

Reviewing Co-opetition between PRC and USA through an Approach of Strategic Intelligence

吳健中(Chien-Chung Wu)

策略情報 ； 中美關係 ； 協調與協作 ； 競合策略 ； strategic intelligence ； Sino-American relations ； coordination and collaboration ； co-opetition strategies

嶺東學報

38期（2015 / 12 / 01）

153 - 193

繁體中文

自1980年代資訊革命以來，在複雜互賴的國際關係研究領域，不乏以資訊為主題的研究，這是因為資訊要素不論是在國際政治經濟中的實務現象，或是在學術中的理論研究，它都扮演關鍵的角色。然而，資訊對國際關係的重要，絕不是始自1980年代，早在2500多年前的中國兵書《孫子兵法》中，孫武早已將國家之間對「知」的需求，從廣泛目標的「資訊」（information）轉化成特定軍事目標的「情報」（intelligence）。1949年美國情報分析大師Sherman Kent首先提出「策略情報（strategic intelligence, SI）」的概念，這種概念不僅融合了既有「策略」與「情報」的核心義涵，並跳脫了只把情報歸屬於軍事戰略，而擴大於國際關係的研究領域。本文即以SI為基礎，嘗試建立一種合理的策略情報分析途徑，以理解在中美關係中的競合（co-opetition）策略，故如何以SI架構理解中美關係中的互動與變化，是為本文的研究主軸。因此，建構一種合乎邏輯的策略情報途徑，便成為本文亟須克服的第一個問題；其次，如何以不同的議題區分，在中美不發生大規模武力戰爭前，解析美、中大國之間協作（collaboration）與協調（coordination）不同程度的變化，將是本文嘗試探究的另一個研究問題。本文認為以SI核心概念中的「國家利益」與「協調和協作」中的情報分享程度，將形成本文的分析框架，而後藉美、中競合的不同議題，帶入本文的分析框架，可以回答上述的研究問題並更細緻的理解美、中大國關係。

After the information revolution in 1980, because the information has become one of the most phenomena in international political economy (IPE) reality and the most factors in international political economy theory, we would find many papers studying about information in international relation (IR) of interdependence. Information is approved core factor in IR study. However, the information studies are not from 1980, but about from 500 B.C. in Sun Tzu's Art of War of China's military book whose author Sun Tzu has transferred information to intelligence which particularly apply for military purpose. The master of intelligence analysis, Sherman Kent, provided strategic intelligence (SI) for USA in 1949. SI would combine “strategy” and ＂intelligence＂ core concept which are not only used for military strategy but also used for IR nowadays. This paper wants to establish an approach of SI to understand co-opetition strategies of Sino-American relations, so to understand the relations of PRC and USA is a main goal and how to establish a logical SI framework is the first question in the paper. The second question is how to analyze the difference of coordination and collaboration through the different issues before massive war between PRC and USA. We believe the SI approach could be formed by national interest and coordination and collaboration of intelligence sharing variables, then above question could be answered and more understand the relations of PRC and USA through SI framework.

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