以服務屬性預測新服務需求－以3G行動電話為例

Forecasting Demand for New Services by Service Attributes-A Case Study of 3G Mobile Phone Service

10.29931/MR.200709.0003

莊懿妃(Yi-Fei Chuang)；蔡義清(Yih-Ching Tsaih)；陳淑芳(Shu-Fang Chen)

服務屬性 ； 轉換機率 ； 間斷選擇 ； Service Attributes ； Switch Probability ； Discrete Choice

行銷評論

4卷3期（2007 / 09 / 01）

289 - 310

繁體中文

在台灣3G行動電話服務至2007年初普及率約10%左右，僅少數消費者使用，由普及率來看仍屬新服務。是項服務提供較2G更多新的功能，而這些功能是否為使用者所需，進而吸引2G使用者轉換至3G系統，為相當有趣的議題。本文首先以因素分析法找出使用者對行動電話功能的要求，結果發現：使用者對行動電話功能的要求，首重傳統的語音傳輸，其次則是影音服務，最後才是上網功能。其次本文以二元羅吉特模式分析2G使用者轉換至3G的機率，結果發現：諸多3G的屬性中，唯有裝置設定費與使用費顯著影響使用者的轉換機率。

In the beginning of 2007 the penetration rate of third generation (henceforth 3G) mobile phone services in Taiwan is about 10%. According to this figure, it is still a new service in the market. 3G mobile phone services offer more functions than 2G can do. It is therefore quite interesting that whether these new functions are necessary for the future life so that the 2G customers are attracted to switch to 3G systems. In this paper, firstly Factor Analysis is employed to find out the functions demanded by mobile phone customers. The results show that traditional voice services, audio services, and the access to the Internet are the best three functions demanded by the customers. Then Binary Logit model is used to analyze the probability of 2G customers switching to 3G systems. This study suggests that among the 3G attributes, only install fee and usage fee affect the probability of switching significantly.

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