結合RFM模式及信心，抵抗性心理指標建構分群顧客之特性

The Research of Characteristics of Classified Customers Based on RFM Model UsingPsychological Indices of Confidence and Resistance

10.29931/MR.201203.0002

黃慧新(Hui-Hsin Huang)

RFM ； 信心 ； 抵抗性 ； RFM ； confidence ； resistance

行銷評論

9卷1期（2012 / 03 / 01）

19 - 41

繁體中文

本研究主要目的為建立既有的市場佔有率當中屬於本品牌顧客之消費者心理特質，以作為未來的消費行為判別之參考依據，此議題的重要性在於過去以行銷資料庫為基礎的數學模式，以可觀察的消費者行為（如購買次數、購買間隔等）去預測市場佔有率、顧客價值，鮮少有結合個體消費心理特質之研究。若能對總體消費行為做個體消費心理觀測，在行為發生之前做偵測與規劃，則使用資料庫行銷不只是推估消費者行為之遷移過程，更可從心理層面了解造成此行為之原因，並預先做偵測。因此本研究首先使用既有的消費者忠誠度行為指標（如RFM等）將本品牌顧客分群，由每一群體中歸納出其人口統計資料，再藉由抽樣了解每一群體的心理特質，心理特質部份以「信心」和「抵抗性」兩個變項，作為了解這群既有消費者心理狀態標準，「信心」指涉的為消費者對自己判斷的確定性與消費者對此品牌態度之方向性，「抵抗性」為消費者對其他競爭品牌行銷活動引誘的抵抗程度；當此顧客對本品牌信心程度越高，並對他牌抵抗性越強烈時，意味此顧客有較高的忠誠度。研究最後並以羅吉斯迴歸估計其轉換機率，分析屬於本品牌市佔率中的顧客價值，作為未來新顧客進入時，以其人口統計資料將之歸屬於現有分群、了解並預測其信心和抵抗性，進一步決定其顧客品質。

The purpose of this research is to set up a model which characterizes a consumer's psychological behavior to predict the consumer's intention of certain brand. The topic is significantly important because there are quite few researches which combine consumer's psychological behaviors and a mathematic model of its associated data base for marketing study. If we can offer a delineation of an individual consumer's psychology on aggregate level, we can set up a marketing plan or strategy before the marketing share is changed and which is due to a change of a consumer's purchase behavior. This research method is organized as follows: Firstly, we use RFM model to classify customers for each brand and find the fitness of demographics variables in each group. Secondly, we survey the customer of each group to explore their psychological characteristic. This research tries to quantify ”confidence” and ”resistance” as the customer's psychological variables. Here confidence refers to the belief strength and belief certainty of a consumer toward certain brand and resistance means the level of a consumers' strength toward certain brand against that of competing brands. When the customer has more confidence toward the brand and resistance against the competing brand strongly, it means the higher loyalty the customer possesses. After sampling, we use Logistic regression to predict brand switching probability. And, finally we can analyze the customer value of each group .We can also estimate the value of a new entrance customer according to his (her) demography and classify him (her) into a group to find his (her) corresponding confidence and resistance values.

1. Fader, S.P., Hardie, G.S.B. & Berger, D.P. (2004). Customer-Base Analysis with Discrete-Time Transaction Data. Unpublished working paper
2. Baumann, C.,Elliott, G.,Hamin, H.(2011).Modeling customer Loyalty in Financial Services: A Hybrid of Formative and Reflective Constructs International.Journal of Bank Marketing,29(3),247-267.
3. Bennett, P. D.,Harrell, G. D.(1975).The Role of Confidence in Understanding and Predicting Buyers' Attitudes and Purchase Intentions.Journal of Consumer Research,2(2),110-117.
4. Berger, E. I.,Mitchell, A. A.(1989).The Effect of Advertising on Attitude Accessibility Attitude, Confidence and the Attitude-Behavior Relationship.Journal of Consumer Research,16(3),269-279.
5. Caruana, A.(2004).The Impact of Switching Costs on Customer Loyalty: A Study among Corporate Customers of Mobile Telephony.Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing,12(3),256-268.
6. Chebat, J. C.,Hedhi, K. E.,Sirgy, M. J.(2009).How Does Shopper-Based Mall Equity Generate Mall Loyalty? A Conceptual Model and Empirical Evidence.Journal of Retailing and Consumer,16,50-60.
7. Chelminski, P.,Coulter, A. R.(2007).On Market Mavens and Consumer Self-Confidence: A Cross-Cultural Study.Psychology & Marketing,24(1),69-91.
8. Clark, A. R.,Goldsmith, E. R.(2005).Market Mavens: Psychological Influences.Psychology & Marketing,22(4),289-312.
9. Crosby, L. A.,Taylor, R. J.(1983).Psychological Commitment and its Effects on Post-Decision Evaluation And Preference Stability among Voters.Journal of Consumer Research,9(4),413-431.
10. Dagger, S. T.,O''Brien, K. T.(2011).Does Experience Matter? Differences in Relationship Benefits, Satisfaction, Trust, Commitment and Loyalty for Novice and Experienced Service Users.European Journal of Marketing,44(9/10),1528-1552.
11. Day, G. S.(1969).A Two Dimension Concept of Brand Loyalty.Journal of Advertising Research,9(3),29-35.
12. Dick, A. S.,Basu, K.(1994).Customer loyalty: toward an integrated conceptual framework.Academy of Marketing Science,22(2),99-114.
13. Eisingerich, B. A.,Rubera, G.,Seifert, M.,Bhardwaj, G.(2011).Doing Good and Doing Better Despite Negative Information? The Role of Corporate Social Responsibility in Consumer Resistance to Negative Information.Journal of Service Research,14(1),60-75.
14. Fader, S. P.,Hardie, G. S. B.,Lee, K. L.(2005).RFM and CLV: Using Iso-Value Curves For Customer Base Analysis.Journal of Marketing Research,42(4),415-430.
15. Fazio, R. H.,Zanna, M. P.(1978).On the Predictive Validity of Attitudes: The Roles of Direct Experience and Confidence.Journal of Personality,46(2),228-243.
16. Gupta, S.,Hanssens, D.,Hardie, B.,Kahn, W.,Kumar, V.,Lin, N.,Sriram, S.(2006).Modeling Customer Lifetime Value.Journal of Service Research,9(2),139-155.
17. Ho, H. T.,Olsen, O. S.,Pham Thi, T. L.(2011).The moderator Effects of Perceived Risk, Objective Knowledge and Certainty in The Satisfaction-Loyalty Relationship.Journal of Consumer Marketing,28(5),363-375.
18. Howard, A. J.,Shay, P. R.,Green, A. C.(1988).Measuring the Effect of Marketing Information on Buying.The Journal of Consumer Marketing,5(3),5-14.
19. Howard, J. A.(1989).Consumer Behavior in Marketing Strategy.Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey:Prentice Hall International, Inc..
20. Howard, J. A.,Loaroche, M.(1980).Nonlinear Relations in a Complex Model of Buyer Behavior.Journal of Consumer Research,6(4),377-388.
21. Huang, H. H.(2010).From Loyal Attitude to Loyal Behavior: The Loyalty Model Construction.2010 Global Marketing Conference,Tokyo:
22. Hughes, M. A.(2006).Strategic Database Marketing.New York:McGraw-Hill.
23. Juan Carlos, G. A.,Marie Hélène, D. C.,Francisco, J. M. L.(2011).Dynamics of Customer Response to Promotional and Relational Direct Mailings from an Apparel Retailer: The Moderating Role of Relationship Strength.Journal of Retailing,87(2),166-181.
24. Keegan, W. J.(2002).Global Marketing Management.N. J.:Prentice-Hall.
25. Khajvand, M.,Zolfaghara, K.,Ashooria, S.,Alizadeha, S.(2011).Estimating customer Lifetime Value Based on RFM Analysis Of Customer Purchase Behavior: Case study.Procedia Computer Science,3,57-63.
26. Lam, S. Y.,Shankar, V.,Bvsan Murthy, K. E.(2004).Customer Value, Satisfaction, Loyalty and Switching Costs: An Illustration from a Business to Business Service Context.Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science,32(3),293-312.
27. Lars, M. W.(2007).The Effects of Loyalty Programs on Customer Lifetime Duration And Share of Wallet.Journal of Retailing,83(2),223-236.
28. Miglautsch, J.(2000).Thoughts on RFM Scoring.Journal of Database Marketing,8(1),67-72.
29. Oliva, A. T.,Oliver, L. R.,MacMillan, C. I.(1992).A Catastrophe Model for Developing Service Satisfaction Strategies.Journal of Marketing,56(3),83-95.
30. Pritchard, P. M.,Havitz, E. M.,Howard, R. D.(1999).Analyzing The Commitment Loyalty Link in Service Contexts.Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science,27(3),333-348.
31. Prus, A.,Brandt, D. R.(1995).Understanding Your Customers.American Demographics,1995(Jul),10-14.
32. Stone, B.(1989).Successful Direct Marketing Methods.NTC Business Books.
33. Tormala, L. Z.,Clarkson, J. J.,Petty, E. R.(2006).Persuasion Knowledge Lay People's and Researchers Beliefs.Personality and Social Psychology,91(3),423-435.
34. Tormala, L. Z.,Petty, E. R.(2002).What Doesn't Kill Me Makes Me Stronger: The Effects of Resisting Persuasion on Attitude Certainty.Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,83(6),1298-1313.
35. Tormala, L. Z.,Petty, E. R.(2004).Source Credibility and Attitude Certainty: A Metacognitive Analysis of Resistance to Persuasion.Journal of Consumer Psychology,14(4),427-442.
36. Wübben, M.,Wangenheim, V. F.(2008).Instant Customer Base Analysis: Managerial Heuristics Often "Get It Right".Journal of Marketing,72(3),82-93.
37. Yeh, I. C.,Yang, K. J.,Ting, T. M.(2009).Knowledge Discovery on RFM Model Using Bernoulli Sequence.Expert Systems with Applications,36(3),5866-5871.
38. 黃慧新(2010)。忠誠度概念思想佔有率之建構：以信心、抵抗性觀點為基礎。國立中興大學行銷研究學術交流論壇