女性勞動參與率、高等教育率、結婚率及女性失業率對台灣地區生育率之影響－以縱斷面VAR模式為實證研究

The Effect of Female Participation Rate, High Education Rate, Marriage Rate and Female Unemployment Rate on Fertility Rate in Taiwan-An Empirical Study in VAR Model

李美慧(Mei-Hui Lee)

生育率 ； 女性勞動參與率 ； 高等教育率 ； 結婚率 ； 女性失業率 ； fertility rate ； female participation rate ； high education rate ； marriage rate ； female unemployment rate

多國籍企業管理評論

2卷2期（2008 / 09 / 01）

93 - 110

繁體中文

過去研究提出經濟因素對於生育率具相當大之影響，例如：男女教育、男女薪資、女性勞動參與率、女性失業率及結婚率來探究其與生育率之關係。然這些研究多為橫斷面之研究，其對生育率的影響目前尚無定論。本研究以縱斷面VAR模式分析各變數對生育率影響，本研究控制經濟條件後，將生育率依經濟成長之差異區分為兩個階段，以結婚率、高等教育率、女性勞動參與率及女性失業率對生育率進行因果分析。並以1978至2004年的資料進行分析。研究結果顯示，在經濟狀況良好下，四個變數皆會如同前人文獻所提的，為生育率重要之解釋變數。當經濟狀況不佳時，女性勞動參與率與高等教育率卻成為重要之解釋變數。故不論經濟好壞，女性勞動參與率皆為重要之解釋變數。本研究最主要之研究貢獻在於得知控制經濟條件後，各變數與生育率之關係的確會呈現不同的因果關係及不同影響效果。因此，本研究建議各國可以依照當時國家的經濟狀況進而找出最具影響力之解釋因素，擬定生育相關政策。

Previous studies showed that economic factors have deep influence on fertility rate, and part of them have even investigated through micro economic factors, such as female employment rate, high education rate, salary, female participation rate, female unemployment rate, and marriage rate,…etc. Nevertheless, the relationships among these variables, investigated by cross-sectional studies, still remain controversial. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to use the longitudinal date to analyze the casual effect among fertility rate, female participation rate, high education rate, marriage rate, and female unemployment rate by control economic condition. The results demonstrate that 4 variables are equal important while in good economic condition' and only female participation rate and high education rate are important ones while in bad. This study also suggests that the government could find out the most important variable and set up its related policy according different economic condition to boost fertility rate.

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