新台幣匯率對台灣國際貿易競爭力影響之研究

The Study of the Influences for the New Taiwan Dollar Exchange Rate to the International Trade Competitiveness of Taiwan

10.3966/199553922014120803008

林瑞山(Ruey-Shan Lin)；吳岱樺(Tai-Hua Wu)；張睿(Ray Chang)

競爭力 ； 匯率 ； 國際貿易 ； 時間序列 ； 轉移函數 ； ARIMA ； Competitiveness ； Exchange Rate ； International Trade ； Time Series ； Transfer Function

多國籍企業管理評論

8卷S期（2014 / 12 / 01）

157 - 179

繁體中文

國際貿易中的進、出口值是衡量一國經濟成長的重要項目。台灣屬於小型開放經濟體，經濟發展對貿易依賴程度甚高，故國際貿易的變化對台灣來說是非常重要的。同時，國際貿易競爭力亦是世界各國衡量國際競爭力的重要指標之一。但是，由於匯率的上升與下降都會直接影響到一國的進、出口值，因此，本研究旨在探討新台幣匯率對台灣國際貿易競爭力的影響。實證結果發現：新台幣匯率的升降負向且顯著地影響台灣的國際貿易競爭力。這個結論除了可供政府與企業部門參考外，更可據以新台幣匯率的升、降來調節台灣在國際貿易上的競爭力。

The import and export values of international trade are important data to measure a nation's economic growth. Taiwan is a small open economy, so it relies heavily on international trade to boost its economy. Thus, the climate of trade will affect Taiwan's economy deeply. Meanwhile, trade special coefficient (TSC) is one of chief indexes used to analyze a country's trade competitiveness among the world. However, the impacts of exchange rate volatility will directly cause the fluctuations of a nation's export and import values. Accordingly, the study aims to explore the relationship and influence between the new Taiwan dollar exchange rates and Taiwan's competitiveness in international trade. The empirical results show that the exchange rate movements significantly but negatively impact Taiwan's competitiveness. Using the results, we are able to offer administrative recommendations to the government and relative enterprises, and also evidences to the government, especially when the government tries to adjust the exchange rate to improve the Taiwan's international trade competitiveness.

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