使用Probit模型估計主場球隊獲勝機率：以美國職業籃球聯盟（NBA）為例

Estimation of the Probability of Winning for NBA Home Court Teams: A Probit Model Approach

10.6547/tassm.202206_22(1).0004

蕭秋銘(Chiu-Ming Hsiao)；張恆崑(Hung-Kun Zhang)；陳冠穎(Guan-Ying Chen)；張庭翰(Ting-Han Chung)

運動經濟 ； Probit模型 ； 勝敗比 ； 運動數學 ； sports economics ； probit model ； odds ratio ； Mathletics

臺灣體育運動管理學報

22卷1期（2022 / 06 / 01）

73 - 95

繁體中文

目的：本文之目的為研究美國職業籃球聯盟的主場球隊獲勝的影響因子，並透過這些因子所建立一預測模型，藉以推算出主場球隊獲勝之機率。方法：透過NBA的官方網站蒐集到2019-20賽季的2,199場例行賽的團隊攻守數據，運用Probit模型估算主場球隊獲勝機率。結果：對於2019-20賽季，對主場球隊贏球的狀態，最高可有81.59%的命中率，整體精準度也有74.49%左右。再者，本文亦運用2020-21賽季的1,080場例行賽資訊，進行預測下一場例行賽的結果。此其時，對於主場球隊贏球機率的預測，約可達80.17%的命中率，且整體而言，亦可高達約71.14%左右的精準度。結論：本文為首度採用團隊數據來估算NBA球隊贏球機率之研究，發現贏球機率與團隊績效有顯著的正向關係，然而，其卻與攻守節奏沒有顯著的關係。再者，本文所提出之預測模型，可有效的估計出球賽的結果，以協助投資人投資決策。

Purpose: This study investigates the factors that influence the probability of NBA home teams winning and establishes a predictive model based on these factors. Method: In this study, the box score data of 2,199 regular games in the 2019-2020 season are collected through the official NBA website, and probit models are used to estimate the probability of the home team winning. Results: For the 2019-2020 season, the highest accuracy is 81.59%, and the overall accuracy is approximately 74.49%. In addition, this study uses information regarding 1,080 regular games in the 2020-2021 season to predict the results of the next regular games. The prediction accuracy of the next game for the home team winning is approximately 80.17%, and the overall precision is approximately 71.14%. Conclusion: This study is the first one to use team performance data in estimating the results of NBA games; a significant positive relationship with team performance is observed. However, the offensive and defensive tempo are not sufficiently significant to estimate the probability of winning.

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