Heterogeneous developments of demographic structure in Taichung City and its six districts

台中市核心及外圍行政區異質性人口結構發展之研究

Nien-Ming Hong(洪念民)；Yu-Chieh Hsieh(謝雨潔)

Population structure ； urban sprawl ； compact city ； shrinkage ； scale ； urban development ； 人口結構 ； 都市擴張 ； 緊縮城市 ； 萎縮 ； 尺度 ； 都市發展

華岡地理學報

35期（2023 / 10 / 01）

29 - 59

英文;繁體中文

This study investigates the demographic interrelationship between Taichung City and its six most densely populated districts during 1998 to 2022. We focused on population structure and therefore adopted diverse demographic variables through which we not only empirically demonstrated how Taichung City and the six outer districts have evolved with time but also engaged in debates on urban sprawl, compactness, and shrinkage to further the understanding of urban transformation. In particular, quantitative methods such as Moran's I and the gradient method were used to analyze spatial and temporal changes among demographic variables in Taichung City and the six outer districts. Our findings suggest that the index of Moran's I of population density is a particularly useful method for examining the relative locations of population growth or decline in specific areas. Moran's I can also indicate whether certain areas have had a tendency toward sprawl or compactness over the course of their development. Moreover, the gradient method is a considerable indicator of the relative development of the city core, suburbs, and the hinterland. In our discussion, we argue that Taichung City is a growing region and its core is experiencing sprawl. The trajectories of the selected six outer districts vary, but four out of six are shown to have shrunk. Inspired by scalar thinking, we conclude that population flows in the city core and the six districts both have contributed to suburbanization in Taichung City. This paper contributes to emphasize the significance of combining both different spatial and temporal scales to grasp the changing population dynamics and urban forms of/within the region.

本研究探討台中市核心及其六個外圍人口較密集行政區的變遷，聚焦於人口結構在時間軸與空間軸的變化，分析核心區域與外圍行政區二者之間長期人口增減統計資料，藉以評估城市的擴張、緊縮與萎縮，描繪台中地區從1998年至2022年間人口變遷軌跡。本研究以全域空間自相關與梯度法進行評估，分析人口結構隨時間與空間的變化，以及整體台中市與下轄行政區的探究。研究結果顯示，首先針對人口密度進行全域空間自相關的分析，為有效評估在空間上人口增長或減少的工具，同時也可作為都市蔓延或緊縮的研判。其次，再以梯度法進行評估，則可辨視出核心區、郊區與外圍延伸區域的範圍。另以台中市下轄的六個行政區的人口變化軌跡進行分析，儘管特徵上各有差異，但其中四個行政區已然呈現都市萎縮的特徵。藉由人口流動與相關分析，結果顯示都市核心與六個外圍行政區，皆呈現郊區化的特徵，核心區域皆正經歷都市蔓延過程。綜合而論，台中市於1998年至2022年間，都市內部結構經歷郊區化的過程，無論是整體台中市，亦或是外圍密集行政區的人口，皆明顯減少或趨於老化。簡言之，本研究的貢獻在於強調結合不同空間和時間尺度分析的重要性，藉此掌握區域及其內部人口變遷與都市形態發展的動態。

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