財測誤差與更新對盈餘管理之影響

An Empirical Test of the Relationship between Modification of Earning Forecast and Earnings Management

10.6736/JPSR.200412_1(1).0002

賴靜惠(Ching-Hui Lai)；陳育成(Yu-Cheng Chen)；張睿棠(Rui-Tang Chang)

財務預測 ； 裁決性應計項目 ； 稅前盈餘 ； 資本市場 ； 盈餘管理 ； earnings management ； forecasted earnings ； discretionary accrual ； capital market ； regulation

績效與策略研究

1卷1期（2004 / 12 / 01）

21 - 45

繁體中文

本研究目的在探討公司上半年所公告的強制性財務預測達成狀況、財務預測差異、以及財測更新動作與下半年盈餘管理的關聯性。在方法上，財務預測差異本研究界定為上半年度實際盈餘與全年預測值之差，有別於過去相關文獻以事後全年度實際盈餘之作法，以降低衡量誤差。 實證結果發現，上半年實際稅前盈餘與全年稅前財測差異愈大的公司，其下半年有運用裁決性項目使實際盈餘值向全年財測數字貼近的傾向。而上半年財測達成率未達25%的公司，其下半年裁決性應計項目會顯著大於財測達成率超過75%的公司。此外，上半年稅前盈餘與全年稅前財務預測間差異愈大，並已作更新財務預測的公司，其下半年裁決性應計盈餘的程度會更為顯著。 上述現象表示，由於證交所等主管機關對財務預測相關脫序現象的罰則規範，加上資本市場存在的懲罰機制，對公司的盈餘管理動作已產生顯著的影響。亦即公司可能為了規避因發生財測誤差而遭受到主管機關的懲處（例如行文糾正，或列為實質審查對象等），以及來自資本市場的懲罰機制，造成企業形象受損，甚或影響日後資金取得成本，進而在下半年有可能從事盈餘管理動作。

This paper empirical tests the relationship between earnings management and earnings forecast error, and re-forecast events. Empirical results showed that the relationship between the difference of the first semi-annual earnings and forecasted earnings with the discretionary accrual is positive. The reason why management manipulates earnings might be the avoidance of direct/ indirect costs come from regulation parties and capital market due to deviate forecasted earnings. Further, we find company will do earnings management when forecasted earnings' achievement rate is low or when the forecasted earnings have been modified during the year.

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