財務預測負向更新對股價之影響－以化學業為例

The Influence Made by the Negative Update of Financial Forecast upon Stock Price Take Chemistry Industry for Example

10.6736/JPSR.200606_3(1).0001

古永嘉(Y. J. James Goo)；杜長樹(Chang-Shu Tu)；李富川(Fu-Chuan Lee)；李國賓(Kuo-Ping Li)

財務預測更新 ； 負向更新 ； 盈餘管理 ； 操縱損益 ； 資訊效果 ； financial forecast update ； negative updated ； manipulative earnings ； information effect

績效與策略研究

3卷1期（2006 / 06 / 01）

1 - 18

繁體中文

上市公司因財務預測不正確，常誤導投資大眾投資決策，而企業當局基於本身利益需求，常會進行政策性盈餘操弄。為了防止企業操縱損益，主管當局立法要求企業必須公告財務預測，接著，更進一步規定營運結果與預測之間的差異達一定條件必須作財務預測更新，以維護投資大眾權益。 本研究主要目的在探討財務預測若需作更新時，其更新內容與股價之關係。研究標的是以化學類股作為探討對象，以多變量時間數列之介入模型做為統計研究工具來進行研究，資料期間包含自民國88年1月1日至89年12月31日，經實證結果所得結論如下： 1.負向更新公告日及次日，個股經檢定後異常報酬顯著異於0，顯示具有價格壓力效果。 2.針對全體樣本，求算其平均異常報酬，負向公告異常報酬顯著異於0，顯示具有價格壓力效果。 3.針對全體樣本，求算其累積異常報酬，負向公告累積異常報酬顯著異於0，顯示具有資訊效果。

The investors are often misled by the listed companies’ incorrect financial forecast while making investment policy. And the enterprise authorities often manipulate earnings politically owing to their own benefits. In order to avoid the manipulation of earnings, the authorities request that the enterprises must publish financial forecast. Moreover, it also regulates that if there is a variance over a certain level between the operating outcome and the forecast, and then the forecast must be updated. This study chiefly explores the relationship between the updated contents and stock price aimed at chemistry industry, and uses” Intervention Model of Multivariate Time Series,” model as analysis tool. The period of the data was from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2000. 1. The publication day of the negative update and the next day, the abnormal return of the individual stock is significantly different from zero，showing that there is an effect of price stress. 2. In regard to the entire sample, calculating the average abnormal return (AR)，there is a significantly difference from zero，showing that there is an effect of price stress. 3. In regard to the entire sample, calculating the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) there is a significantly difference from zero，showing that there is an effect of information.

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