義大利的公投－歐盟因素

Referendums in Italy: European Elements

紀舜傑(Shun-jie Ji)

義大利公投 ； 多層次因果分析 ； 民粹主義 ； Italian Referendum ； Causal Layered Analysis ； European Union

台灣國際研究季刊

15卷2期（2019 / 06 / 01）

145 - 165

繁體中文

義大利是少數西歐國家中允許由人民直接發動公投的國家，因而公投經驗豐富，所有公投次數在西歐民主國家中僅次於瑞士，並經常被類爲公投研究的案例。本文主要探討重點在於認識義大利公投之制度設計，執行情形，並探討近年來最引人注目的2016憲政公投，特別是夾雜在那次公投中的歐盟因素，最後則以未來學的多層次因果分析法，對義大利的公投進行深度分析。我們發現許多導致2016年公投的表面問題，例如政府施政效率不彰、經濟衰退、日益嚴重的難民湧入問題。在系統層我們則看到義大利憲政體制造成的立法延宕，內閣不穩，以及決策受限歐盟規範的制度性原因與結果。在世界觀與論述方面，2016年公投除了是對憲政改革的集體意志表達外，因爲倫齊如果下台後，右派民粹傾向的五星行動黨可能組閣，於是世人便將此公投視爲義大利對與歐盟未來關係的一次表態，歐盟因素便被加入分析討論中，我們也從許多實證調查資料中發現義大利對歐盟的較負面的態度。最後的迷思或隱喻部分，我們提出是否以民粹風潮來看待義大利2016公投的結果乃爲過度簡化與誤導。

Italy, indeed, is a country with plenty of experiences in upholding referendums. This article is to comprehend its institutional designs and practices in a long period of time. Moreover, we try to use 2016 Referendum as a case study to explore the influence of European Union in all aspects. In the end we use Causal Layered Analysis to dissect and conclude the complicated issues involved in 2016 case. We find that the litany problem is seen in governmental ineffectiveness, corruption, economic recession, and the influx of refugees. In systemic level we contend the constitutional design for Italian governments are imposing obstacles on pragmatic operations of political affairs. Also the restraints from EU jeopardized its effective functions. The world view is on how Italians see Italy and EU collaborate in political and economic issues. The last of myth we find out by blaming populism is very convenient and mess up result with origin.

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