寮國經濟發展的挑戰與展望

Challenges and Prospects in Laos' Economic Development

陳建甫(Chien-Fu Chen)

大湄公河次區域 ； 一帶一路 ； 地緣政治 ； 小國理論 ； 外交政策選擇 ； Greater Mekong Subregion ； Belt and Road Initiative ； geopolitics ； small state theory ； foreign policy choices

台灣國際研究季刊

20卷2期（2024 / 06 / 01）

119 - 151

繁體中文;英文

寮國是亞洲最年輕的國家之一，自然資源豐富。透過利用水力發電，寮國向鄰國出口電力，使其贏得了「東南亞電池」的綽號。寮國由於地處複雜多變的湄公河流域，成為地緣政治利益的焦點。2013年，習近平提出「一帶一路」倡議，其中包括興建橫跨東南亞半島的「泛亞鐵路」。這項舉措使寮國有機會超越「電池」的角色，透過鐵路將中國西南部與東南亞國家連接起來，成為連接樞紐。本研究回顧寮國等國家在大湄公河次區域經濟發展的文獻，考察了大壩建設和中寮鐵路對寮國經濟的影響。本文運用「小國理論」分析寮國的外交政策選擇及其債務危機。透過「情節分析」，設計「平衡之舞」、「沈默鐵路」、「黃金橋樑」、「協同之河」四個情景，評估寮國在各個情景下的外交政策和戰略決策。研究發現，面對債務危機，寮國政府需要調整經濟發展策略。這可能包括與中國談判減免債務、減息或延長償債期限，或採取靈活的外交策略，與日本和美國合作開發湄公河流域。這些措施旨在吸引更多外資，增強與湄公河流域其他國家的競爭力和合作機會。研究建議寮國政府展現推動必要經濟改革、提高治理能力、增強透明度的決心，以贏得國際社會的信任和支持，以吸引更多的國際投資和發展援助。

In 2013, Xi Jinping proposed the "Belt and Road Initiative" (BRI), which includes plans to build the "Pan-Asia Railway" across the Southeast Asian peninsula. This initiative offers Laos the chance to move beyond its role as the "Battery" and become a linking hub by potentially connecting southwestern China with Southeast Asian countries through the railway. This study reviews the literature on economic development in the Greater Mekong Subregion byexamining the impact of dam construction and the China-Laos Railway on Laos' economy. Utilizing the "Small State Theory," this paper analyzes Laos' foreign policy choices and its debt crisis. Through "scenario analysis," it designs four scenarios, Dance of Balance, Silent Railway, Golden Bridge, and River of Synergy, assessing Laos' diplomatic policies and strategic decisions in each scenario. It finds that when facing a debt crisis, the Lao government needs to adjust its economic development strategy. This may include negotiating with China for debt relief, interest reduction, or extension of debt repayment periods, or adopting flexible diplomatic strategies to collaborate with Japan and the United States in developing the Mekong River Basin. The study recommends that the Lao government demonstrate determination in promoting necessary economic reforms, improving governance capabilities, and enhancing transparency to gain the trust and support of the international community, thereby attracting more international investment and development aid.