The Rise of China and Its Implications for Korean Economy

中國崛起對南韓經濟的意義

10.30392/TJWTOS.200608_(4).0005

李章揆(Chang-Kyu Lee)；李麟求(Inkoo Lee)

中國崛起 ； 南韓經濟 ； 中韓經貿關係 ； 產業空洞化 ； Rising China ； Korean economy ； Sino-South Korea relations ； the industrial hollowing-out

Taiwanese Journal of WTO Studies

4期（2006 / 08 / 01）

155 - 188

英文

中國經濟快速成長和對全球經濟開放已導致韓中兩國的經濟關係產生重大變化。中國崛起對南韓的影響可以從四方面來看。其一，中國正崛起成為製造王國與出口大國；其二，中國正快速擴大進口或可彌補其競爭對手在第三國市場所蒙 受的出口損失；其三，中國正崛起成為國際上海外直接投資的最大接受國；其四，中國崛起成為世界製造工廠導致更多南韓廠商失去原有的競爭力。為保持其競爭力，眾多南韓廠商將渠等生產設施移至中國。此舉所造成的產業空洞化可視為在將來對南韓經濟最大的挑戰之一。 南韓經濟持續涉入中國似乎對其貿易成長與競爭力的改善有所助益，同時也促進中國經濟持續成長。透過與南韓經濟合作與自由貿易，預期中國將可以吸收更多的資本並可使其得以生產更具附加價值的商品；這將促使中國經濟保持穩定增長。同時更可預期南韓將會持續利用中國的低生產成本、不斷擴大的國內消費市場與對中介產品的需求增加。然而,南韓內部亦關注中國崛起造成南韓製造業空洞化的影響。 本文分析中國崛起對中韓雙邊貿易、境外投資、產業空洞化三方面的衝擊。面對中國經濟的快速成長，南韓產業加速外移,南韓經濟無可避免地必須承受某種程度的空洞化。但仍需強調南韓產業可藉由將生產設施遷移至中國而增加其產品在市場上的價格競爭力。本文作者建議，第一，南韓需增加投資研發部門的經費，建立高附加價值產業，以應付中國工業化的進展與隨之而來對高附加價值中介產物的需求；其二，南韓需藉由自由貿易協定擴展新市場，以應付中國進口替代政策所帶來對南韓中介產品需求的下降。

Chinese economy has experienced dramatic changes since its adoption of economic reform in 1978. In the past 26 years, China's GDP increased at a rate of 9.4% per year and its current GDP ranks the 6(superscript th) in the world. Accompanied China's economic reform is the opening up of domestic market to the world. Between 1978 and 2004, on average, China's foreign trade increased by 16.7% per year, and reached US$ 1,154.7 billion in 2004, making China ranked 3(superscript rd) in the world. The rapid economic growth and gradual open-door policy have made China become a country with attractive investment opportunities for foreign countries. The foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has increased from a negligible amount in the late 1970s to US$ 60.6 billion in 2004, making China the second largest FDI recipient country in the world, next only to the United States. China's rapid growth and opening up with the world economy has led to significant changes in economic relations between Korea and China. The impacts of the rising China on Korea can be examined through four aspects. First, China is growing as a large manufacturer and exporter. Second, China is rapidly raising the volume of imports, which could offset any export loss for competitors in third markets. Third, China is emerging as a competitor in absorbing the foreign direct investments, making China one of the largest recipient of FDI in the world. Fourth, China is emerging as a world manufacturing factory, making more Korean producers lose their competitiveness. In order to maintain the their competitiveness in the world market, a large number of Korean firms attempt to shift their production facilities into China, taking advantages of China's skilled and cheap labor forces. With the geographical shift of Korean production activities, the industrial hollowing-out should be regarded as one of most important challenges which the Korean economy has to confront in the near future. This paper studies the impacts of rise of China on Korea by analyzing its implications for bilateral trade, overseas investment and industrial hollowing-out of Korea. In this paper, we claim that Korean companies investing in China benefit from their production relocation by gaining price competitiveness although it is inevitable for Korean economy to suffer from the hollowing-out to a certain degree. We also suggest that, first, Korea should foster high value added industry in order to cope with advances in China's industrialization. Second, Korea is needed to expand export market through the free trade agreement to prepare for China's import-substitution. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In section 2, we describe the bilateral economic relations between Korea and China, and discuss the prospects for economic cooperation between two countries. In section 3, we examine whether the hollowing-out effect in Korea is as serious as expected with the rise of Chinese economy. Section 4 concludes.

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