公共空間隨機殺人風險評估之探討

Assessing the Risk of Random Killings in Public Spaces

10.6459/JCM.202409_21(2).0001

黃讚松(T. S. Huang)；莊家瑋(J. W. Zhuang)；曾諭聲(Y. S. Zeng)；林韋辰(W. C. Lin)；丁煒倫(W. L. Ding)；詹子賢(Z. X. Zhan)

隨機殺人 ； 公共空間 ； 風險管理 ； Random Killings ； Public Spaces ； Risk Management

危機管理學刊

21卷2期（2024 / 09 / 01）

1 - 12

繁體中文;英文

隨機殺人案件震驚各界，其預防難度度高，民眾出入公共場所存著恐懼而自我限制，深怕成為下一個被害者，每個公共空間都會被質疑可能成為隨機殺人案件的場所，公共空間安全被社會大眾所質疑，民眾活動因隨機殺人案件難以預防而更加緊張壓力，對隨機殺人危害的風險如能提高自身警覺，事先採取防範措施，將有助於降低風險發生。本研究透過作業風險管理進行隨機殺人風險評估檢視，從經驗歷史面經學者專家評估檢視公共空間隨機殺人風險因子，以作業分析（Operation Analysis, OA）與初步危險分析（The Preliminary Hazard Analysis, PHA）有效提列重要危險因子30項，依發生嚴重性與機率篩選出極高度風險1項，高度風險計有10項、中度風險計有11項，低度風險計有8項。隨機殺人風險原始平均風險指數等級H-6，依風險因子特性採取相對應具體改善措施，預期可降低隨機殺人風險為低度風險等級L-16，整體平均風險指數（Average Risk Index, ARI）由原始的14.8降為5.5，風險控制直接衡量指標（Direct Indicator of Risk, DIR）達77%，顯示具有良好風險控管效果。依本研究風險評估結果提出建議，歸納出家庭、社會、同儕、個人、醫療等六項管控機制，提供政府相關機關降低風險參考準據，未來經實務運作風險評估檢驗成熟，可擴大運用至社會、家庭、個人等降低風險之參考。

Despite their shock value, random killing events are notoriously challenging to prevent. The fear of becoming a victim has led some people to limit their movements in public spaces. This fear contributes to societal concerns about the safety of these areas, where random killings might occur. The anxiety surrounding public activities is heightened by the inherent difficulty in preventing such random acts of violence. To mitigate the risk of random killings, increasing self-awareness and taking precautionary measures are essential. Our risk management study approaches the issue from both experiential and historical perspectives. We engaged scholars and experts in operational analysis and preliminary hazard analysis to identify 30 key risk factors for random killings in public spaces. Based on their severity and probability, we classified one factor as very high risk, ten factors as high risk, 11 factors as moderate risk, and eight factors as low risk. After implementing improvement measures, we observed a significant reduction in risk levels. The average risk level was lowered from an initial H-6 to L-16, the average risk index decreased from 14.8 to 5.5, and the direct indicator of risk showed a 77% reduction, indicating effective risk control. This study offers government agencies recommendations and benchmarks for risk reduction, derived from six management controls identified in our risk assessment. These controls pertain to family, society, peers, individuals, and healthcare. As these risk assessment protocols evolve and mature, they can be expanded to social, familial, and individual levels, contributing to a reduction in the risk of random killings in public spaces.