歐債危機對全球經濟與金融發展之影響

Study on the Impacts of European Debt Crisis to Global Economic and Financial Developments.

10.29705/EAR.201203.0003

趙永祥(Yuang-Shiang Chao)

歐債危機 ； 全球經濟 ； 全球金融 ； 歐元區 ； 歐盟（EU） ； European debt crisis ； the global economy ； global finance ； the euro zone ； the European Union (EU)

東亞論壇

475期（2012 / 03 / 01）

29 - 47

繁體中文

歐債危機起源於希臘債務危機，歐洲在歐盟內部國家，都是使用歐元作為流通貨幣的也叫做歐元區，他們是一整體，希臘也是其中之一，但是由於希臘本身的經濟水平並不強，並不能創造足夠的價值，為維持歐元區普遍的薪資和福利水平，採取國家借貸的做法，如果歐元區經濟總量持續增加，希臘可以用新借貸償還舊借貸，以此維持，但是由於國際經濟形勢不好，歐元區經濟增量沒有達到預期，希臘經濟更是一塌糊塗，因此希臘債務評級不斷下降，無法借到新的貸款，而原有貸款即將陸續到期，所以無法償還債務的希臘陷入危機，如果沒有外來的幫助，希臘這個國家將像雷曼兄弟銀行一樣破產，曾經借給希臘錢的銀行和組織資產泡湯倒閉形成連鎖反應，2009年11月23日希臘爆發債信危機，因被國際禿鷹集團趁機狙擊而重挫全球股市。爾後，又因國內罷工反抗且被調降債信評，並引發包括希臘在內之所謂「歐豬五國」程度不同之歐債危機；且因其發展已對全球金融市場造成驚心動魄、崩跌、震盪、及衝擊後，而嚴重影響歐元區之穩定與發展，此一負面連鎖反應把整個歐元區經濟成長往下拉而形成歐債危機。本研究企圖從歐債危機形成到其後續對全球經濟與金融所產生之影響進行深入探討，因希臘財政紀律一向欠佳且赤字與負債最為嚴重，此一歷史慣例與路線依賴現象，到金融海嘯後乃爆發希臘債信危機與歐元區之結構性問題，並引發歐債危機而衝擊全球，惟歐盟（EU）已儘速亡羊補牢並妥善處理中。本研究主要單元可分為：一、歐元區發生歐債危機之原因；二、歐債危機之處理與發展情形；三、歐債危機對台灣地區經濟金融之影響與四、歐債危機對亞洲國家與中國之影響；五、結論與政策性建議。

The current euro zone debt crisis starts from Greece, and spreads out to other nations within the EU which are now using the euro as the currency in circulation. Greece repaid past loans with new borrowing in order to maintain its credit. Up to now, Greece cannot meet the euro-zone economy standards therefore the Greek debt rating is still falling down, and then it is difficult to borrow a new loan. Without outside rescue Greece would encounter the risk of country credit crisis like Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. this is what we know the debt crisis in Europe. This study attempted to analyze the formation of its follow-up to discuss the impact generated by the global economic and financial debt crisis from Europe in depth. This study will discuss the following points: 1. the euro zone debt crisis in general; 2. how to deal with development situations in Europe; 3. the impact of European debt crisis on Taiwan's regional economic and financial development; and the impact on China economy and finance.

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