台灣對越南進出口貿易主要影響因素之探討－以台灣電子業為例

The Main Influence Factors of Taiwan to Viet Nam Trade- Evidence from Taiwan Electronic Industry

10.6565/JGME.2016.12(1).1

柯勝揮(Sheng-Huei Ko)；蔡雨珊(Yu-Shan Tsai)

雙對數複迴歸模型 ； 直接投資 ； 匯率 ； 台彎對越南貿易 ； Double-log Multiple Regression Model ； Direct investment

全球管理與經濟

12卷1期（2016 / 06 / 01）

1 - 16

繁體中文

本文以雙對數複迴歸模型(Double-log Multiple Regression Model)探討台灣電子業對越南進出口貿易之主要影響因素。研究結果顯示，直接投資對出口、進口及整體貿易等皆具替代關聯效果。越南GDP對出口、台灣GDP對出口等皆具顯著之正相關，而台灣GDP及越南GDP對對整體電子業貿易也具顯著之正相關。至於匯率對出口之影響不顯著，但是對進口及整體貿易則具顯著之負相關。

Based on Double-log Multiple Regression Mode to analyze the main influence factors of Taiwan to Viet Nam trade on Taiwan electronics industry. Research shows that direct investment on export, import, and overall trade is associated with substitution effect. Viet Nam GDP on exports, Taiwan GDP on imports were significantly positively correlated, while Taiwan GDP and the Viet Nam GDP on the whole electronic industry also has significant positive correlation. As to the impact of exchange rates on exports is not significant, but the import and whole trade with significant negative correlation.