模擬研究適合的實驗設計

The Goodness of Fit Experimental Design in Simulation Research

10.6194/SCS.2014.33.06

王榮照(Jung-Chao Wang)

概化理論 ； 分配理論 ； 概化研究 ； 決斷研究 ； Generalizability theory ； distribution theory ； G-study ； D-study

運動教練科學

33期（2014 / 03 / 01）

67 - 77

繁體中文

現代科技透過電腦的功能，可以根據機率理論產生虛擬資料，在進行實徵資料研究前，透過模擬研究掌握可能的結果；但執行測驗模擬研究時，各變項應該產生多少資料？並沒有一定的準則。本研究的目的在於探討模擬研究的實驗設計，決斷各變項的適合操作次數。研究對象是運動技術測驗設定計分量尺合適的分配理論。概化理論程序的研究方法分析常態分配、羅吉斯分配、二項分配、均等分配的變項效果百分比，分析模式為（P:S）× I；首先概化研究估計變項的變異成份，再以決斷研究決定模擬研究變項的適合操作次數。結果：一、概化研究得到平均變異成份為隨機誤差（pi:s）佔98.44%，顯示模擬研究符合隨機抽樣理論；其次，依序為樣本數量巢串在抽樣次數（p:s）佔0.94%、抽樣次數和測驗長度交叉（si）佔0.39%、測驗長度（i）佔0.23%、抽樣次數（s）趨近于零。二、決斷研究：樣本數量設定為大樣本（n=1,000）、中樣本（n=300）和小樣本（n=30）三種，測驗長度設定為短測驗（i=10）和長測驗（i=50）兩種，抽樣次數設定為隨機抽樣5次。結論：運用概化理論能夠決斷模擬研究實驗設計的變項適合操作次數。

The based on probability theory of modern technology through computer's functions could be generated virtual data. Simulation research could catch on the possible results before conducting empirical research. But how much data should each variable produce when the test implementation of simulation research. And there is no a certain criterion. The purpose of this study was to explore the simulation research of experimental design, and the decision the suitability of operation times in the variable. The subject of the study was an appropriate set distribution theory for the scoring scale of sport skill tests. The generalizability theory (G-theory) procedure of research method was used to analyze the percentage of variables effect for normal distribution, logistic distribution, binomial distribution, and uniform distribution. The analysis model was (P: S) × I. First of all, generalizability study (G-study) estimated variance components, and then decision study (D-study) decided the suitable number of operations in the variables of simulation research. The results were: 1. G-study was obtained the average variance components of random error (pi:s), which was accounted for 98.44 %. It showed that the simulation research fitted random sampling theory. Secondly, the order of the sample size nested within sampling frequency (p:s) was accounted for 0.94 %, and the sampling frequency crossed with test length (si) was accounted for 0.39%, and test length (i) was accounted for 0.23%, and the sampling frequency (s) was approaching zero; 2. D-study: The three sample size were set for large sample (n=1,000), medium sample (n=300) and small sample (n=30). The two test length were set for short test (i=10) and long test (i=50). The sampling frequency was set for the five times of random sample. Conclusion: Using G-theory could decide the suitable operating frequency of variables in the experimental design of simulation research.

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