2013年美國職棒大聯盟影響勝場數之魔球模式探索

An Exploration of the Money Ball Theory on the Number of Wins in the Major League Baseball Season 2013

10.6194/SCS.2016.41.02

謝仁瑋(Jen-Wei Hsieh)；徐茂洲(Mao-Chou Hsu)

魔球 ； 美國職棒大聯盟 ； 上壘率 ； Money Ball ； Major League Baseball ； on base percentage

運動教練科學

41期（2016 / 03 / 01）

9 - 22

繁體中文

目的：職棒薪資不斷迅速地擴張，如何控管團隊薪資總額又能兼顧球隊戰績的經營方式自然成為顯學，而本研究目的探討之「魔球模式」在這樣的時空背景下所提出的一項經營理論。方法：偏最小平方法（partial least squares, PLS）有幾項優點如小樣本分析、形成型指標、理論模式探索分析，而本研究2013年美國大聯盟魔球模式中樣本數只有30支球隊，本研究方法以偏最小平方法（PLS）分析「上壘率」、「長打率」、「打擊率」、「得分」、「保送三振比」等五項攻擊指數來預測「勝場數」。五項攻擊指數屬於形成型指標。而魔球模式處於探索及解釋性研究，無充分理論基礎，因此本研究符合PLS的應用原則。結果：研究結果顯示僅「上壘率」顯著影響「勝場數」；並根據研究結果提出具體建議提供相關單位參考。

Purpose: As the salaries of professional baseball players continue to increase, determining how to manage the gross salary of the team while maintaining the competitiveness of the team has become a prominent subject. The ＂Money Ball Theory＂ that this research purpose tends to explore is a managerial theory born under this circumstance. Methods: Partial least squares (PLS) has several strengths, such as the small sample size for analysis, formative indicators and theory pattern exploratory analysis. In this study, there are only thirty teams in the 2013 Major League Baseball season. The research methods used PLS to analyze the five offensive indicators: base percentage, slugging percentage, batting average and runs, walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/ SO), the researcher predicts that the number of wins was a formative indicator. As the Money Ball theory was still an exploratory and interpretive approach, it does not have a strong theoretical foundation, this consequently enables the research to achieve the application principle of PLS. Results: The results of the study present that only the ＂on base percentage＂ has a significant influence on the number of wins. Suggestions based on the result are also provided as reference to the relevant units.

1. 李俞麟、施致平、黃蕙娟(2011)。美國職業棒球大聯盟球隊績效評估之研究。臺灣體育運動管理學報，11(4)，317-335。
   連結：
2. 陳逸政(2012)。美國職業棒球大聯盟球隊薪資結構與績效之探討。運動教練科學，28，37-48。
   連結：
3. 黃元鶴(2007)。圖書資訊領域期刊引用影響之結構方程模式分析。教育資料與圖書館學，44(3)，259-273。
   連結：
4. 楊人智、廖志猛、許旻棋(2011)。美國職業運動選擇權之應用初探。大專體育，117，43-48。
   連結：
5. 廖清海、高錦勝、林聖峰(2005)。運動表現與媒體曝光率關聯性探討：以民生報刊載中華職棒之照片為例。大專體育學刊，7(2)，75-85。
   連結：
6. 廖清海、陳景森、張志成(2007)。運動表現與報紙曝光率之關聯性探討—以蘋果日報刊載第三屆超級籃球聯賽照片為例。體育學報，40(1)，63-75。
   連結：
7. 廖清海、楊世達(2010)。運動表現與薪資之關聯性探討—以中華職棒大聯盟十九年為例。運動與遊憩研究，4(3)，57-67。
   連結：
8. 李衡昕（2010）。全民瘋量化：淺談棒球統計學。資料引自http://blog.yam.com/hamiltonca/article/28715822
9. Baseball Almanac. (2014). Major League Baseball salaries. Retrieved from http://www.baseball-almanac.com/charts/salary/major_league_salaries.shtml
10. Plunkett Research. (2013). Sport industry research. Retrieved from http://www.plunkettresearch.com/
11. 維基百科（2015）。奧克蘭運動家。資料引自https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/%E5%A5%A7%E5%85%8B%E8%98%AD%E9%81%8B%E5%8B%95%E5%AE%B6
12. Wikipedia. (2014). Sabermetrics. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabermetrics
13. CBS Sports. (2013). Report: Dodgers to make more than $6billion from TV contract. Retrieved from http://www.cbssports.com
14. Entertainment Sports Programming Network. (2012). MLB completes new TV deals. Retrieved from http://espn.go.com
15. Entertainment Sports Programming Network. (2013). MLB attendance report - 2013. Retrieved from http://espn.go.com
16. Ahn, S. C.,Lee, Y. H.(2014).Major League Baseball attendance: Long-term analysis using factor models.Journal of Sports Economics,15(5),451-477.
17. Chin, W. W.(1998).Issues and opinion on structural equation modeling.MIS Quarterly,22(1),7-16.
18. Coakley, J. J.(2004).Sport in society: Issues and controversies.Boston, MA:McGraw-Hill.
19. Cohen, J.(1988).Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences.Hillsdale, NJ:Lawrence Earlbaum Associates.
20. Cohen, J.(1994).The earth is round (p < .05).American Psychologist,49(12),997-1003.
21. Davis, M. C.(2009).Analyzing the relationship between team success and MLB attendance with GARCH effects.Journal of Sports Economics,10(1),44-58.
22. Diamantopoulos, A.,Winklhofer, H. M.(2001).Index construction with formative indicators: An alternative to scale development.Journal of Marketing Research,38(2),269-277.
23. Einolf, K. W.(2004).Is winning everything? A data envelopment analysis of Major League Baseball and the National Football League.Journal of Sports Economics,5(2),127-151.
24. Gerrard, B.(2007).Is the Moneyball approach transferable to complex invasion team sports?.International Journal of Sport Finance,2(4),214-230.
25. Goff, B. L.,Tollison, R. D.(2010).Who integrated Major League Baseball faster winning teams or losing teams? A comment.Journal of Sports Economics,11(2),236-238.
26. Hakes, J. K.,Sauer, R. D.(2006).An economic evaluation of the Moneyball hypothesis.The Journal of Economic Perspectives,20(3),173-186.
27. Hakes, J. K.,Sauer, R. D.(2007).The Moneyball anomaly and payroll efficiency: A further investigation.International Journal of Sport Finance,2(4),177-189.
28. Hanssen, F. A.,Meehan, J. W.(2009).Who integrated Major League Baseball faster: Winning teams or losing teams?.Journal of Sports Economics,10(2),141-154.
29. Henseler, J.,Ringle, C. M.,Sinkovices, R. R.(2009).The use of a partial least squares path modeling in international marketing.Advances in International Marketing,20,277-319.
30. Hill, J. R.,Spellman, W.(1983).Professional baseball: The reserve clause and salary structure.Journal of Economy and Society,22(1),1-19.
31. Kedar-Levy, H.,Bar-Eli, M.(2008).The valuation of athletes as risky investments: A theoretical model.Journal of Sport Management,22,50-81.
32. Lewis, M.、游宜樺譯(2008)。魔球—逆境中致勝的智慧。臺北市:早安財經。
33. Marcoulides, G. A.(Ed.)(1998).Modern methods for business research.Mahwah, NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
34. Meehan, J. W., Jr.,Nelson, R. A.,Richardson, T. V.(2007).Competitive balance and game attendance in Major League Baseball.Journal of Sports Economics,8(6),563-580.
35. Mullin, B. J.,Hardy, S.,Sutton, W. A.(2007).Sport marketing.Champaign, IL:Human Kinetics.
36. Ringle, C. M.(2004).Gütemaße für den Partial Least Squares - Ansatz zur Bestimmungvon Kausalmodellen.Hamburg, Germany:Universitat Hamburg.
37. Ringle, C. M.,Sarstedt, M.,Straub, D. W.(2012).A critical look at the use of PLS-SEM in MIS quarterly.MIS Quarterly,36(1),3-14.
38. Sambamurthy, V.,Chin, W. W.(1994).The effects of group attitudes toward alternative GDSS designs on the decision-making performance of computer-supported groups.Decision Sciences,25(2),215-241.
39. Sanderson, A. R.,Siegfried, J. J.(2003).Thinking about competitive balance.Journal of Sports Economics,4(4),255-279.
40. Schmidt, M. B.,Berri, D. J.(2001).Competitive balance and attendance: The case of Major League Baseball.Journal of Sports Economics,2(2),145-167.
41. Stone, G.,Pantuosco, L. J.(2008).Estimating baseball salary equations from 1961-2005: A look at changes in major league compensation.International Journal of Sport Finance,3,228-238.
42. Street & Smith's Sport Business Journal(2002).By the numbers: The authoritative annual research guide and fact book.Charlotte, NC:Author.
43. Volz, B.(2009).Minority status and managerial survival in Major League Baseball.Journal of Sports Economics,10(5),522-542.
44. Wetzels, M.,Odekerken-Schröder, G.,van Oppen, C.(2009).Using PLS path modeling for assessing hierarchical construct models: Guidelines and empirical illustration.MIS Quarterly,33(1),177-195.
45. Yilmaz, M. R.,Chatterjee, S.(2003).Salary, performance, and owners' goals in Major League Baseball: A view through data.Journal of Managerial Issues,15(2),243-255.
46. 邱皓政(2003)。結構方程模式：LISREL 的理論、技術與應用。臺北市:雙葉書廊。
47. 雷文谷、吳靜怡(2010)。美國職業大聯盟球隊薪資與球隊戰績之相關研究。嘉大體育健康休閒期刊，9(2)，14-25。
48. 劉振家、陳育成、黃德舜(2009)。職業運動選手薪資及其影響因素分析—美國、日本、韓國、臺灣職業棒球聯盟之比較。休閒事業研究，7(2)，87-105。

1. 陳安妮,高國慶,李純漢,白驍馬(2021)。職業棒球選手工作生活品質滿意度之研究。運動教練科學，62，13-30。
2. 陳宗榮,連冠昱,張富貴,王李中羿(2020)。第55屆世界桌球錦標賽馬龍發球與接發球技術分析。長榮運動休閒學刊，14，82-92。
3. 鄧政偉、張可欣、洪至祥(2018)。探討排球運動員自我對話、效能與表現之研究－以台灣北、中部大學生為例。運動休閒管理學報，15(1)，28-42。
4. 許建民,宋孟遠(2020)。以攻守表現與競賽制度預測中華職棒比賽勝負。運動與遊憩研究，15(2)，41-51。