男子職業網球選手生涯勝率影響因素之探討

On the Determinants of the Career Winning Percentages of Man's Professional Tennis

10.6194/SCS.201812_52.0003

張嘉雄(Chia-Hsiung Chang)；范姜逸敏(Yi-Min Fan Chiang)；蔡明松(Ming-Sung Tsai)

分量迴歸分析 ； 網球技術分析 ； 訓練策略 ； quantile regression analysis ； analysis of tennis skills ； training strategy

運動教練科學

52期（2018 / 12 / 01）

25 - 38

繁體中文

目的：本研究分析探討第一發球得分率、第二發球得分率、回對手第一發球得分率、回對手第二發球得分率、保發球局率及對手保發球局率等六項攻守能力指標，對於男子職業網球選手生涯勝率的影響。方法：以國際職業網球協會現役與甫退役共672位選手為研究對象，並利用分量迴歸分析某一攻守能力對於各種不同高低勝率等級之選手的影響。結果：第一發球得分率、第二發球得分率、回對手第一發球得分率、回對手第二發球得分率、保發球局率等五項得分能力，對於選手的勝率有正面的影響，因為這些解釋變數的比率值愈高代表發球與回發球能力愈好，愈有能力拿下局盤數乃至於整場賽事。此外，對手保發球局率的提升對於選手的生涯勝率有負面影響，因此此一變數對於勝率的影響是負面的。然而，有別於傳統迴歸方法，研究結果亦顯示各種網球技術的提升，對於選手生涯勝率的影響會隨著選手等級的不同而有所不同。例如，提升第二發球得分率，勝率處於前段班的選手，其生涯勝率提升的效果明顯大於後段班的選手。結論：一個網球及其他運動賽事之選手與教練，必須先瞭解其網球實力在網壇所位處的相對位置因材施教，不同相對位置選手的攻守能力之強化策略及方向必須有所不同，以有效提升選手的勝率。

The winner of a tennis match is mainly determined by players' service and return abilities. We examine the marginal effects of six service and return skill indices: namely, 1st and 2nd serve win percentage, first and second return win percentage, service and opponent's service game held percentage, on Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) players' career match win percentage. Methods: We use the quantile regression method to analyze the effect of the six tennis skills on the match winning percentages of 672 active and just retired players of different levels, using the records retrieved from a pay access website. Results: The 1st and 2nd serve win percentage, 1st and 2nd return win percentage, service game held percentage, has positive effects on ATP players' career match winning percentage of tennis players. On the other hand, as opponent's service game held percentage increase, the career match win percentage decreases accordingly. However, in contrast to classical regression, the results further show that the magnitudes of the effect on tennis players' career win percentage of the above skills vary across the levels of tennis players. For example, the rise in a top player's career win percentage in response to the improvement in second serve win percentage is noticeably greater than that of an average player. Conclusion: A tennis player (other sports players as well) and his/her coaches need to understand the relative position of his/her career win percentage before they seek to increase it by enhancing the above 6 ability indices. Different level players need different training strategies and different priorities of skill promotions to effectively increase their career winning percentages.

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