都市與鄉村地區住宅價格成因差異分析

The Influence of Real Estate Transaction Price from Comparison with Urban and Country Area

張鼎煥(Ting-Huan Chang)；邱建良(Chien-Liang Chiu)

住宅 ； 不動產 ； 貸款利率 ； 貸款成數 ； 縱橫資料 ； house ； real estate ； interest rate ； loan-to-value ； panel data

北商學報

23期（2013 / 01 / 01）

45 - 64

繁體中文

本研究利用縱橫資料模型區分住宅需求面、供給面、市場面與金融面等四類變數，分別探討臺灣地區、都市與鄉村地區住宅價格成因差異。實證結果發現臺灣地區與都市地區住宅價格皆受住宅供給面、市場面與金融面變數影響，鄉村地區住宅價格則受住宅需求面與市場面變數影響；臺灣地區與都市地區住宅價格亦受金融海嘯事件衝擊導致住宅價格下跌，但鄉村地區住宅價格則未受此事件衝擊，都市與鄉村地區住宅成因差異，顯示政府得利用貨幣與信用寬鬆與緊縮之貸款利率與成數，調控都市地區住宅價格，亦從人口分佈與市場活絡思考平衡住宅價格城鄉差距之對策。此外，鄉村地區住宅市場缺乏流動性，銀行承做鄉村地區不動產抵押擔保授信之授信風險管理政策，應加強研擬流動性風險因應對策。

This paper studies the linkages between variables of demand, supply, liquidity, and finance and transaction price of real estate by using panel data in Taiwan, further comparing influence with urban and country area. The empirical findings confirm that numbers of total house negatively affect on transaction price due to negotiating opportunity. In addition, expected short-term building cycle and market liquidity are both positive influence on transaction price. The interest rate and loan-to-value which implies credit easing and crunch can be employed by government for controlling real estate market condition through banking system. Finally, the variables of supply, liquidity, and finance will affect on transaction price of real estate in the urban area, however, the transaction price of real estate in the country area has been influenced by variables of demand and liquidity. The capital flight into real estate market which has a hedging function is only in the urban area during the financial crisis period, implying the imbalanced development between urban area and country area.