台灣飲料店業的銷售預測模型

Forecast Sales Model of Beverage Store in Taiwan

10.6132/JCM.2013.7.2.12

黃營芳(Ying-Fang Huang)；張志瓏(Chih-Lung Chang)

灰馬可夫 ； GM(1,1) ； 指數平滑法 ； 指數迴歸 ； Grey Markov ； GM(1,1) ； Exponential Smoothing ； Exponential Regression

商業現代化學刊

7卷2期（2013 / 07 / 01）

227 - 242

繁體中文

在2012年的現今，人們的生活型態及消費習慣隨著時代的不同也會跟隨著改變，人手一杯飲料似乎成了每天的必需品，這樣的消費習性不知不覺地融入我們的生活當中，近年來國內便利商店、咖啡店、連鎖飲料店及速食店等都有大幅的成長速度展店，透露著台灣民眾對於飲料的依賴性是日漸增強，且取得飲料的便利性也不斷的再提升，然而面對這些不斷變化的因素，如何加強及深化預警機制，使飲料業對市場需求的變動能更加準確完善，此乃本研究深入探討的主要動機。本研究根據經濟部統計處工業生產統計資訊所公告之2000年到2011年台灣飲料店業的營業額，在不考慮其他因素下以灰馬可夫、GM（1,1）、指數迴歸以及指數平滑法，針對台灣飲料店業的銷售額進行預測與實證分析。

In nowadays, people change their life style and consumption habits as the difference of times. Drinks seem to become a necessity in our life. The convenience stores, coffee shops, chain stores of beverage or fast food shops have expanded well in recent years. It revealed that the dependence of drinks was gradually increase for Taiwanese. Furthermore, the convenience of drinks buying is promoted constantly as well. However, market demand is unending change. Thus how to improve early waning accurately for adjustment and perfection in beverage industry is the motivation of this paper.This study forecasted sales of beverage store and experimental analyzed by way of Grey Markov, GM(1,1), Exponential Smoothing and Exponential Regression without considering other factors according as Department of Statistics Ministry of Economic Affairs announced the turnover of beverage stores in Taiwan from 2000 year to 2011 year.