Taiwan's Transition from High Fertility to Lowest Low Levels

10.6412/AJHIS.200604.0001

Ming-Cheng Chang

fertility transition ； total fertility rate ； net reproduction rate ； parity-progression ratio ； cohort fertility ； and family policy

Asian Journal of Health and Information Sciences

1卷1期（2006 / 04 / 01）

1 - 15

英文

Taiwan's net reproduction rate (NRR) fell to 1.0 in 1983 and to 0.6 in 2003. In 1964 when the island-wide family planning program was promoted, the total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.10 and the net reproduction rate was 2.27. The sustained fertility decline, however, began earlier. In 1955 the total fertility was as high as 6.55 and the net reproduction rate was 2.82. Taiwan has completed the fertility aspect of the demographic transition in the 20 years after the initiation of an intensive family planning program. Since 1984, the NRR in Taiwan has been below-replacement fertility. This article compares the fertility experience of Taiwanese in twenty years since the total fertility rate reached 2.1 with that before fertility reached replacement levels. During the earlier period, two-thirds of the fertility decline resulted from falling marital fertility and one-third from her age at marriage. The changing age distribution retarded this decline. Between 1983-1997, the further decline to 1.7-1.8 has been entirely the result of the trend toward later marriage. Older age distributions now facilitate the decline. Births postponed by those marrying later make the conventional TFR misleading. Computation based on parity-progression ratios raise TFRs from 1.7 to 2.0, a number less alarming to policymakers. Contraceptive practice is at saturation levels in all major population strata. The ”KAP-GAP” has disappeared. What would have happened without Taiwan's effective family planning program is impossible to determine, but clearly, contraceptive services supplied by the program were the major proximate cause of Taiwan's fertility decline. During 1998-2003, however, the TFR based on the parity-progression ratio would be under 2.0 especially for year after 2001. Another evidence is from a cumulative fertility or cohort fertility derived from Taiwan's birth registration for women who are almost getting through their reproductive ages. The cohort total fertility for women who were born in 1961 was 1.99 when they reached 40 years old in 2001. For women who were born in 1966, the cohort total fertility was 1.67 when they were 35 years old in 2001. It sounds likely for women who were born after 1961 that their cohort total fertility would be smaller than that of women born before 1961. A recently announced population policy (1992) for Taiwan is translated as: Since 1984, the net reproduction rate has been below the replacement level. If the downward trend continues, the population of the Taiwan area will reach the stage of ”zero population growth” soon and turn into a ”negative growth” quickly. This means a decrease in the young population and an increase in the aging population which will lead to different sorts of social problems, such as the lack of labor force and a high dependency ratio. Therefore, the future policy should promote a reasonable growth of the population. The new policy aims to keep the guideline of ”two children family,” but advocates increasing the marriage rate and the birth rate of married women to maintain the net reproduction rate at the replacement level. An important measure for pushing up the NRR is to raise the marriage rate though strengthening educational campaigns for the youth. So far, such an effort is not successful. Accordingly, our government is actively involved in proposing a new pronatalist population policy. It is suggested to develop a child and family policy to encourage fertility.