遠見雜誌民調中心簡介

Introduction of the Global Views Survey Research Center

10.30075/TJER.200809.0005

戴立安(Li-An Tai)；林佳旻(Chia-Min Lin)

台灣民心指數 ； 選舉預測 ； 競選指標 ； 票源結構分析模式 ； Taiwan Public Mood Index TPMI ； election prediction ； campaign indicator ； candidate ticket structure analysis model

選舉評論

5期（2008 / 09 / 01）

83 - 94

繁體中文

遠見雜誌民調中心成立於2006年3月，至盼以專業嚴謹的調查研究確實反映民意，並藉客觀中立的報導或評述，提供社會大眾第一手的參考資訊。除每年固定執行大型調查，主要如企業社會責任調查、廿五縣市萬人調查等，並在每月執行暨發布「台灣民心指數」調查，已普獲國內外引用。此外，本中心團隊成員具備豐富的選舉民調經驗，自1998年建立預測題組後，又陸續完成「票源結構分析模式」、「競選指標」模組等，並已成功預測各項公職選舉結果。

The Global Views Survey Research Center (GVSRC) was established in March 2006 in order to reflect public opinion by professional survey research, and provide the first hand information for the public by objective analysis. GVSRC executes several extensive surveys regularly every year, such as Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Survey, Taiwanese 25 Cities and Counties Grand Survey. Besides, GVSRC plans and initiates the ”Taiwan Public Mood Index” (TPMI) survey and release survey results regularly every month to provide references for interested parties domestically and internationally. Furthermore, the team members all have abundant experiences in extensive election surveys. The methodology for the prediction model is modified in 1998, based on past survey experiences. The prediction model improves a 'Campaign Indicator' and 'Candidate Ticket Structure Analysis Model', and successfully predicted the result for each election from 2004 to 2008.

1. 每月更新結果與詳細分析請見中心網站
2. 中心網站
3. 每月更新結果與詳細分析請見中心網站
4. 中心網站
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6. Alan D. Romberg.Politics Jockey for Position in Taiwan's 2007-2008 Elections, While Japan Jockeys for Position Across the Strait.China Leadership Monitor,20
7. Alan D. Romberg.Taiwan Elections: Foundation for the Future.China Leadership Monitor,24
8. Alan D. Romberg.Election 2008 and the Future of Cross-Strait Relations.China Leadership Monitor,21
9. Alan D. Romberg.Taiwan: All Politics, All The Time.China Leadership Monitor,19
10. Alan D. Romberg.After the Taiwan Election: Restoring Dialogue while Reserving Options.China Leadership Monitor,25
11. Chunjuan Nancy Wei(2008).Politics and Governance: How Did the Democratic Progressive Party Win the Election but Lose Taiwan?.The OYCF 10th Annual Meeting Globalization and Nationalism across the Taiwan Strait
12. PID Tracking Analysis in Taiwan
13. Yun-han Chu(2008).Taiwan in 2007: The Waiting Game.Asian Survey,48(1),124-132.

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