台灣行動聯網的潛在經濟效益分析：以芬蘭為比較基礎

The Potential Economic Effects Analysis of Taiwan' Mobile Internet: Regard Finland as the Comparative foundation

10.6697/TBPJ.201106_4(2).0005

游張松(Chang-Sung Yu)；翁榮隨(Winston S. Won)；劉鶴龍(Ho-Lung Liu)

Cobb-Douglas生產函數 ； Solow成長模型 ； Fisher-Pry模型 ； Cobb-Douglas Production Function ； Solow Growth Model ； Fisher-Pry Model

臺灣企業績效學刊

4卷2期（2011 / 06 / 01）

233 - 258

繁體中文

行動電信(mobile phone)以及寬頻互聯網(broadband internet)之整合匯流的行動聯網(mobile internet)為全球追逐的發展趨勢。本研究之目的在於建立行動聯網的經濟發展模式，並且進行跨國資料實證分析比對，從而推估行動聯網的發展速度。以芬蘭為比較基礎，分析台灣在行動聯網發展趨勢之下的發展潛力與其經濟效益，並且推演出台灣下一波經濟發展的政策建議。為推估行動聯網的發展速度，本文應用Fisher-Pry模型，估算得知行動聯網大約只要四到五年就能在台灣地區達到50%的滲透率。

Mobile Internet, the convergence of mobile telecommunications network and broadband Internet, has become the most sought after technology development around the globe. This study is intended to establish an economic development model of mobile Internet based upon cross-country empirical analysis. The estimate of mobile Internet penetration rate over time serves as a fundamental parameter to project future economic value in Taiwan, regard Finland as the comparative foundation. This study applies Fisher-Pry model in the inference of development rate of mobile Internet and concludes that the penetration rate in Taiwan would reach 50% between four and five years.

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