整合FANP與DEMATEL於太陽光發電廠廠址之評選模式

A Solar Power Plant Site Selection Model by DEMATEL and FANP

10.6697/TBPJ.201312_7(1).0001

徐彰孚(Chang-Fu Hsu)；李榮貴(Rong-Kwei Li)；洪夢禪(Meng-Chan Hung)

模糊分析網路程序法 ； 決策實驗評估法 ； Yager排序法 ； 太陽光能發電廠 ； Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) ； Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) ； Yager's Ranking Method ； Solar Power Plant

臺灣企業績效學刊

7卷1期（2013 / 12 / 01）

1 - 24

繁體中文

近年來可明顯的觀察到氣候暖化加劇與極端天氣增多，其背後的原因不外乎使用大量的石化燃料以獲取電能有關，而如此快速氣候異常變遷之衝擊，已帶給地球生態嚴峻的考驗，為了避免未來無法預期的惡負面後果，在綠色永續發展為基礎的前提下，使用更安全、更具競爭力的潔淨能源勢在必行。雖然核能發電符合低碳排放的要求，但在2011年日本的311大地震中大海嘯所引發的核災，也突顯出核能背後所帶來不可預期的嚴重後果，致使核能安全更引發了更多的替代能源供應的疑慮。因此為了減少環境衝擊、落實環保意識與維持經濟的永續發展，潔淨再生能源的使用是必須且必要的。在另一方面，由於石化燃料有價格持續攀高且耗用枯竭的問題，除了既有的水力發電外，太陽能的運用必然是未來綠色能源之重要選項。本研究以台灣太陽光能發電廠廠址選擇為探討目標，在考量政策、經濟效益、材料、與綠色環保等多屬性問題上，選擇最適之太陽光能電廠廠址。相應運用之模式結合決策實驗評估法（DEMATEL）與模糊分析網路程序法（fuzzy analytic network process ; FANP）來建立不同屬性準則間的相互關連姓，並以Yager法來解模糊，在整合各項準則權重後，進行廠址評估，以提供最適太陽光能光電廠廠址的選擇建議。

Global warming and extreme weathers are present in recent years, and an increase in drought, flood, glacier melting, ice cap shrinking and sea level rising is observed in various places throughout the world. Such dramatic changes in weather have brought severe impact to the global ecology. The earthquake in Japan in March 11, 2011, caused tsunami and then nuclear disaster, with heavy causalities. To confront such environmental changes and to maintain sustainable development, environmental awareness must be stressed, and renewable energy is a must. In addition, fuel resource depletes substantially, and fuel price skyrockets consistently. Therefore, solar power and wind power become primary renewable energy sources. This research aims to tackle the solar power plant site selection problem in Taiwan. To consider this multi-attribute decision making problem with economic efficiency, government and environment issues, this research uses decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) to incorporate the interrelationships among the criteria, and adopts the Yager's ranking method to consider the fuzziness in decision making. The weights of various criteria and the ranking of the sites can be obtained. The results can provide power plants for setting up plant sites in the most appropriate locations.

1. 光電科技工業協進會(PIDA)(2012)，http://www.pida.org.tw/。
2. 經濟部：永續能源政策綱領(2008)，http://verity.erl.itri.org.tw/EIGIC/index.php。
3. (2012)。YUAN Magazine，4-13。
4. 工業技術研究院：IEK計畫(2012)，我國新興能源產業回顧與展望，http://ieknet.iek.org.tw。
5. 經濟部能源局：能源統計手冊二版(2012)，http://www.taiwangreenenergy.org.tw。
6. 維基百科，http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/。
7. Adamo, J.M.(1980).Fuzzy decision trees.Fuzzy Sets and Systems,4(3),207-219.
8. Büyüközkan, G.,Çifçi, G.(2011).A novel hybrid MCDM approach based on fuzzy DEMATEL, fuzzy ANP and fuzzy TOPSIS to evaluate green suppliers.Expert Systems with Applications,39(3),3000-3011.
9. Goodman, R.(1988).Introduction to Stochastic Models.Monlo Park, California:Benjamin/Cummings Publishing Company.
10. Lee, A.H.I.,Hung, M.C.,Kang, H.Y.,Pearn, W.L.(2012).A wind turbine evaluation model under a multi-criteria decision making environment.Energy Conversion and Management,64,289-300.
11. Liou, J.H.,Tzeng, H.G.,Chang, H.C.(2007).Airline safety measurement using a Novel Hybrid Model.Journal of Air Transport Management,13(4),243-249.
12. Papoulis, A.,Pillai, S.U.(2002).Probability, Random Variables, and Stochastic Processes.New York:McGraw-Hill.
13. Qian, X.,Yao, Y.,LI, J.,Zhou, Y.,Wang, S.,Liu, L.,YIN, J.(2012).Analysis of all-China sunshine conditions of site selection for large solar telescopes.Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics,36(4),445-456.
14. Saaty, T.L.(1994).How to make a decision: the analytic hierarchy process.Interfaces,24(6),19-43.
15. Saaty, T.L.(1980).The Analytic Hierarchy Process.New York:McGraw-Hill.
16. Tseng, M.L.(2009).Application of ANP and DEMATEL to evaluate the decision-making of municipal solid waste management in Metro Manila.Environmental Monitoring and Assessment,156(1-4),181-197.
17. Tzeng, G.H.,Huang, C.Y.(2012).Combined DEMATEL technique with hybrid MCDM methods for creating the aspired intelligent global manufacturing & logistics systems.Annals of Operations Research,197(1),159-190.
18. Xiao, J.,Yao, Z.,Qu, J.,Sun, J.(2013).Research on an optimal site selection model for desert photovoltaic power plants based on analytic hierarchy process and geographic information system.Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy,5,023132.
19. Yager, R.R.(1981).A procedure for ordering fuzzy subsets of the unit interval.Information Sciences,24(2),143-161.
20. Yang, J.L.,Tzeng, G.H.(2011).An Integrated MCDM technique combined with DEMATEL for a novel cluster-weighted with ANP method.Expert Systems with Applications,38(3),1417-1424.
21. Yue, C.D.,Huang, G.R.(2011).An evaluation of domestic solar energy potential in Taiwan incorporating land use analysis.Energy Policy,39(12),7988-8002.
22. Zadeh, L.A.(1965).Fuzzy sets.Information and Control,8(3),338-353.
23. 康志堅(2012)。新興能源產業年鑑。工研院IEK。
24. 康鶴耀、卓俞廷、李欣怡(2011)。結合DEMATEL與Fuzzy ANP於決策太陽能電池產業之研究。2011兩岸工業工程與管理學術研討會
25. 黃文雄(1978)。太陽能之應用及理論。協志叢書。
26. 黃秉鈞(2008)。台灣如何利用太陽能發電。科學人雜誌，72(2月號)
27. 經濟部能源局(2012)。能源產業技術白皮書。