貶值有利於台灣的貿易嗎？

Does Depreciation of the Exchange Rate Boost Taiwan's Trade?

10.6697/TBPJ.201612_10(1).0001

江怡慧(Yi-Hui Chiang)；蕭博旭(Po-Shu Hsiao)；范筑媛(Chu-Yuan Fan)；陳宜佑(Yi-Yu Chen)；彭詩珈(Shih-Chia Peng)

匯率 ； 貿易 ； 偏最小平方法 ； Exchange Rate ； Exports ； Partial Least Square (PLS)

臺灣企業績效學刊

10卷1期（2016 / 12 / 01）

1 - 16

繁體中文

身為出口導向的經濟體，台灣面臨著貿易競爭對手的貶值競爭中。台灣是否也該採貶值策略？匯率貶值真的有助於台灣的出口貿易？如果是，程度如何？如果不是，是為什麼？本文以台灣在2002-2012 年間的國家及產業層級的數據為研究對象，並利用偏最小平方法(Partial Least Squares；簡稱PLS)路徑分析法(Path Analysis)及六個假設，來探討匯率和貿易的關係。研究結果發現，匯率對總體因素呈負向影響關係；貿易量對總體因素呈正向影響關係；匯率對廠商ASUS 及HTC 績效呈負向影響關係；匯率對於台灣的貿易量呈負向影響關係；亦即匯率的升貶值並不與貿易量呈同向的變動關係。此研究結果可提供出口商、決策者及相關單位進行貿易規劃時之參考。

As an export-oriented economy, Taiwan is facing depreciated competition among trade partners. Does depreciation of the exchange rate boost Taiwan's trade? If yes, how large is it? If not, why not? This study tested six hypotheses derived from using the partial least squares (PLS) method, country-level and business-level data during the period of 2001-2012. Tests found that the depreciation of the exchange rate has negative impacts on macro factors; total trade has positive impacts on macro factors; depreciation of the exchange rate has negative impacts on total trade, if other conditions constrained. That is, the exchange rate depreciation does not boost Taiwan's trade. The result of this study can provide insights for exporters, policymakers and relevant stakeholders.

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