金融發展、經濟成長與對外債務的空間分析－以政治、法律與經濟性質空間網絡探討之

The Spatial Analysis of Financial Development, Economic Growth and External Debt: Evidence from the Spatial Network of Politics, Law and Economics

10.29895/ATFSAS.201509_8(2).0003

林昌平(Chang-Ping Lin)

金融發展 ； 經濟成長 ； 對外債務 ； 空間落遲迴歸 ； 空間Durbin迴歸

新竹教育大學人文社會學報

8卷2期（2015 / 09 / 30）

61 - 87

繁體中文

本文分析國家的金融發展與經濟成長，是否影響其對外債務的變化，並使用空間計量分析方法，透過政治、法律與經濟等不同性質的空間網絡關係，探討國家之間金融發展、經濟成長與對外債務的相互影響關係。實證資料包括1990年至2010年間，全球53個國家的相關資訊。分析結果顯示，無論透過間接金融或是直接金融的方式，當一國金融發展程度有所提升時，皆會影響該國本身的對外債務比重。相反地，各國經濟成長的幅度，並不會改變該國對外債務的變化，各國經濟成長與對外債務之間並不存在明顯的關聯性。就空間網絡的相互影響關係而言，則發現無論是政治、法律或是經濟性質的空間網絡關係，相同網絡屬性國家的對外債務變化，將影響具有同樣屬性空間網絡國家的對外債務比重。而一國的金融發展與經濟成長，同樣會影響相同網絡屬性他國的對外債務。其中，間接金融發展將透過政治屬性空間網絡提升各國的對外債務；直接金融發展將透過政治、法律與經濟屬性的空間網絡減緩各國的對外債務；至於經濟成長則透過法律屬性的空間網絡增加各國的對外債務。

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