原住民授信風險之探討─Logistic迴歸模型分析

Studies on Loan Default Risk of Indigenous Peoples in Taiwan: Using Logistic Regression Analysis

10.29910/TJIS.200909.0001

李桐豪(Thomas Tung-Hao Lee)；梁連文(Lien-Wen Liang)

原住民族 ； 授信風險 ； Logistic迴歸模型 ； Indigenous Peoples ； default risk ； logistic regression analysis

台灣原住民族研究季刊

2卷3期（2009 / 09 / 01）

1 - 24

繁體中文

長期以來，台灣原住民族，無論是基本生存條件抑或發展機會，始終處於結構面與實質面雙面不利的弱勢地位，這種劣勢地位也反映在其經濟上的相對弱勢，如何幫助原住民自給自足以提升其經濟地位，為原住民政策之重要課題。本文乃擬針對原住民現行放款戶資料及違約戶樣本進行研究分析，利用Logistic迴歸分析方式，有效檢測各項授信風險因子與逾期放款案件之關聯性，瞭解原住民借款戶特有之風險變數，提出針對原住民特質之授信風險機制建議。

Indigenous Peoples in Taiwan, in terms of both basic living conditions and advancement opportunities, stay long inferior status from both structural and actual situation point of view. This inferior status is reflected in their relatively disadvantaged economic situation. How to help Indigenous Peoples to be self-sufficient so as to promote their economic status is an important issue for government's indigneous policies.This article analyzes the performance of Taiwan's indigenous loans sponsored by the fund provided by the Council of Indigenous Affairs. We apply Logistic Regression Analysis to detect default risk factors in those loan cases. Via understanding those risk factors of loans to aboriginals, we are able to suggest future lending policies particularly designed for Taiwan's Indigenous Peoples.

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