區域災害系統論坡地災害風險評估

The Study of Regional Disaster System for Disaster Risk Assessment of Mass Movement

10.6562/JEE.2012.29.2

洪政耀(Cheng-Yao Hung)；林雪美(Hsueh-Mei Lin)

區域災害系統 ； 孕災環境敏感度 ； 致災因子危害度 ； 承災體曝露與脆弱度 ； 風險 ； 災害 ； 羅吉斯回歸 ； Regional Disaster System ； Susceptibility of Potential Hazard Environment ； Hazard of Extreme Natural Phenomena ； Exposure and Vulnerability of Residents ； Risk ； Disaster ； Logistic Regression

工程環境會刊

29期（2012 / 07 / 01）

21 - 41

繁體中文

過去十年來，自然現象所帶來的災害損失逐年上升，必須深入了解災害發生的原因。藉由了解災害發生之因，達到有效的預備、減災措施將災害損失降低。首先，需要收集並確認災害的點位、分析災害的孕災環境因素以推估相鄰的環境特性，再來是經歷過許多的災害得知如何與災害共處的風險降低策略。災害對於居住在此的居民會產生多大的脆弱程度並不只能考慮災害的源頭，也就是自然特性的大小可能造成的威脅，我們還必須考慮社會因素決定一個地區的社會脆弱度，這扮演著相當關鍵的角色。本篇目的就是以區域災害系統論，提供一個了解人與環境之間互動的有利分析方式，並結合GIS平台以空間化的方式展現其成果。研究證實了解災害必須結合孕育災害的自然環境，也就是孕災環境，探討何種環境特性具有好發塊體破壞的可能；二是觸發環境產生極端自然現象的致災因子，如地震、降雨、颱風，三是承災體人的生命與財產，以及承災體對抗自然現象的應付能力兩個部分，包含承災體本身的曝露量以及承災體抗災的脆弱程度，來解決當代複雜的災害之因。結果顯示孕災環境敏感度最高的地方往往非最風險的地區。這是一個相當重要的發現，反映著地區的承災體脆弱度也是影響受災與否的重要因素。故本篇文章提出的區域災害系統論，提供一個了解人與環境之間互動的有利分析方式。

Losses from extreme natural phenomena have escalated in the past decade. There is a noticeable change in policy, with more emphasis on loss reduction through mitigation, preparedness, and recovery programs. Effective mitigation of losses from hazards requires hazard identification, analyses the time and spatial characteristics of mass movement, and assess susceptibility of potential hazard environment along the side of study area. Furthermore, risk-reduction measures that are compatible across a multitude of hazards. The degree to which populations are vulnerable to hazards, however, is not solely dependent upon proximity to the source of the threat or the physical nature of the hazard-social factors also play a significant role in determining vulnerability. This paper presents a method for assessing risk of disaster by regional disaster system. A geographic information system was utilized to establish risk based upon susceptibility of potential hazard environment, hazard of extreme natural phenomena, and exposure and vulnerability of residents for our study area. Therefore, this study emphasizes the disaster should not only focus sensitivity and trigger of the natural environment, but need to consider the hazard of extreme natural phenomena, exposure and vulnerability of residents. Finally, discuss interaction of the three, which is a concept of Regional disaster system. Our results suggest that the most susceptibility places do not always spatially intersect with the most vulnerable populations. This is an important finding because it reflects the likely ＂vulnerability of residents＂ on the region is an important factor of disaster. The regional disaster system supported method of analysis relationship between residents and environment, and spatially present results through GIS.

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