Do Family Firms Make More Optimistic Forecasts?

家族企業發佈的財務預測是否過於樂觀

陳坤志(Kun-Chih Chen)；陳霞(Xia Chen)

家族企業 ； 財務預測 ； 過度自信 ； Family firm ； Management forecast ； Overconfidence

會計審計論叢

5卷1期（2015 / 06 / 01）

1 - 28

英文

本文探討家族的所有權和控制權是否影響家族企業所發佈財務預測的特性。家族企業所有人比一般企業所有人更在意聲譽和訴訟風險，但是同時他們也可能更容易對自身企業有過份的信心。本文發現家族企業發佈的財務預測比一般企業更加過度樂觀。我們也發現雖然證券分析師的預測會針對家族企業這份過度的自信加以調整，但他們調整的幅度往往不夠，所以證券分析師對家族企業所做的獲利預測較不準確也較樂觀。本文發現家族企業經理人的過度自信影響了他們的財務預測，進而導致證券分析師的預測失準，這個現象或許可以解釋文獻中家族企業的財報品質較佳但是整體的資訊環境卻不佳的矛盾。

We examine how family ownership and control impact the properties of management forecasts. Family owners have greater litigation and reputation concerns than other types of CEOs. At the same time, however, they are also more likely to be overconfident. We find that overconfidence on the part of family owners significantly affects family firms' management forecasts-family firms' management forecasts tend to be more optimistic compared to those of nonfamily firms. We also find that although financial analysts adjust for the greater level of optimistic bias in management forecasts of family firms, the adjustment does not seem to be complete. When we compare analyst forecast optimism and analyst forecast accuracy between family firms and nonfamily firms over the fiscal year, we find that analysts' forecasts are more optimistic and less accurate for family firms than for nonfamily firms throughout most of the fiscal year. Our findings show that overconfidence on the part of family owners significantly influence family firms' management forecasts and may potentially explain why family firms have poorer information environment despite family firms' better earnings quality.

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