景氣、利率對購屋與租屋之影響是否存在不對稱性

Is There Asymmetry in the Effects of Business Cycle and Interest Rates on House Purchase and Rental?

10.6207/ART-VISION.202410_(28).017-047

張俊評(Chang, Jun-Ping)；宋宣瑩(Sung, Hsuan-Ying)；蔡永順(Tsai, Yung-Shun)；臧仕維(Tzang, Shyh-Weir)

景氣 ； 利率 ； 購屋 ； 租屋 ； business cycle ； interest rate ； house purchase ； rental

藝見學刊

28期（2024 / 10 / 01）

17 - 47

繁體中文;英文

台灣地區對房地產的偏好非常的高，縱使景氣有所變動，房價仍不斷提高，導致部分人無法負擔高昂的房價，只能租屋。因此，本研究擬探討景氣與利率變動對購屋與租屋的影響。本研究利用向量自我回歸模型，檢測2012至2022年，景氣與利率的變動對租屋與購屋是否存在不同程度之影響。實證結果顯示：（1）租金與總體經濟變數不存在明顯的因果關係。（2）房價與總體經濟變數存在單向因果關係。（3）總體經濟變數對租金與房價的影響效果存在不對稱性。

The preference for real estate in Taiwan is very high. Even with changes in the economy, housing prices continue to rise. As a result, some people cannot afford the high housing prices and can only rent. Therefore, this study intends to explore the impact of business cycle and interest rate changes on home purchase and renting. This study uses a vector autoregressive model to test whether the changes in business cycle and interest rates have different degrees of influence on home purchase and renting from 2012 to 2022. The empirical results show that: (1) There is no obvious causal relationship between rent and overall economic variables. (2) There is a one-way causal relationship between housing prices and overall economic variables. (3) There is asymmetry in the effect of overall economic variables on rents and house prices.