COVID-19期間台灣防疫相關個股行情影響因素之探討

Factors Influencing Epidemic Prevention Related Stocks during COVID-19 Pandemic in Taiwan

10.6285/MIC.202107/SP_01_10.0010

張維碩(Wei-Shuo Chang)

新冠肺炎 ； Google搜尋量指數 ； 向量自我迴歸分析 ； 衝擊反應函數 ； COVID-19 Pandemic ； Google SVI ； VAR ； Impulse Response Function

管理資訊計算

10卷特刊1（2021 / 07 / 01）

107 - 116

繁體中文

本文以每日新冠肺炎的確診病例數、Google搜尋指數以及股市相關數據等資料，應用於研究台灣防疫相關股票在新冠肺炎期間所受到的影響。新冠肺炎疫情籠罩全球，造成2020年3月的股票拋售潮，接著美國推出一連串的貨幣及財政政策，反而使各國的股市屢創新高，台灣於2021年5月暴發社區型傳染，較之前的疫情更為嚴峻。COVID-19這個令人捉摸不定的疾病，改變了世人的生活，2020年Google全球的關鍵字搜尋Coronavirus排行第一，而台灣股市2020年漲幅最高的是醫療口罩股票。COVID-19事件成為民眾關注的焦點，各種相關訊息在網路上流竄，同時也有官方公布的疫情資料，本文以Google Trends的關鍵字為投資人關注的代理變數，結合確診人數資料，以計量方法及衝擊反應函數分析，實證結果顯示台灣本土新增確診人數、全球對口罩的搜尋量指數增加量，對部份防疫個股報酬有顯著的正向影響。

Using daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, Google search and stock market data, this paper examines the related stocks' responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in Taiwan. The COVID-19 pandemic, also known as the coronavirus pandemic, is an ongoing global pandemic. The stock markets across the world plunged into bear territory in March 2020. Monetary and fiscal policies of the United States attracted more hot money flows into capital market. The stock markets climbed to record high levels. Taiwan raised the COVID alert to Level 3 in mid-May 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted everyone's lifestyle. According to Google, ＂coronavirus＂ was the most-searched term over the word in 2020. The 2020's highest gaining stock was face mask company of Taiwan Stock Exchange. The data showed high demand for information which is corresponding with increasing searches for coronavirus linked to news sources and official statistics. This paper explores Google Trends as a proxy for what investors are thinking and planning in real time. The econometric analysis and impulse response function methods are used to identify the influence. The evidence shows that domestic infections in Taiwan and Google SVI of face mask have significantly positive effects on returns of epidemic prevention related stocks.

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