How Should the World Face the Hazards Associated with the Anthropogenic Climate Change

我們該如何因應氣候變遷引起的災害

10.6149/JDM.2012.0101.01

黃鍔(Norden E. Huang)

氣候變遷 ； 全球暖化 ； 自然災害 ； 自然災難 ； 天災傷亡 ； 永續發展 ； Climate change ； Global warming ； Natural hazards ； Natural disasters ； Casualty from naturaldisasters ； Sustainable development

災害防救科技與管理學刊

1卷1期（2012 / 03 / 01）

1 - 33

英文

地球的平均溫度由於人類活動的結果正在以史無前例的速度增加。雖然在一百年中增溫0.7℃似乎微不足道，但增溫的速度預示著嚴重的後果。國際間做了很多的努力，開過好些會議，簽訂了一個又一個的協定，其目的都在於抵禦這個人為氣候變遷的災害。到目前為止，世界上的主流思想都在於節能減碳。由於二氧化碳能在大氣滯留五十年以上，即使我們立刻停止用碳，過去累積二氧化碳所產生的後果，將會在長時期危害我們。所以立刻停止用碳不能消除氣候變遷給我們帶來的災害。根據最近聯合國和世界銀行的報告，目前的數據顯示自然災害的數目的確在和全球溫度與日俱增，同時世界人口與經濟發展也在同步增長。但是由於自然災難的傷亡卻在減少。因為生命是無價的，減低災難的傷亡才是減災防災的最重要目標。聯合國與世界銀行的數據顯示，防止由於氣候變遷所導致的天然災害最好的方法不是節能減碳而是經濟發展。唯有經濟發展才是最有效的防災減災手段。這對於貧窮有待發展的國家尤為重要。目前全世界95%的天災傷亡都來自南亞與非洲─這也是全球最貧窮的地區。如何減低天災的傷亡該是目前最重要的工作。永續發展才是我們迎應氣候變遷該採取的策略。

The Earth has experienced an anthropogenic mean temperature increase at an unprecedented rate. Even though the total temperature increase of 0.7℃ over the last hundred years seems to be insignificant, the fast rate bodes for dire consequences in the years to come. International efforts have been mobilized, conferences have been organized, and resolutions have been adopted all aiming to fight the hazards from this anthropogenic climate change. So far, most of the attention has been centered on carbon consumption limitation or capping. As the CO2 already in the atmosphere will stay for 50 years or more; therefore, even if we stop carbon consumption right now, the effect of the past carbon consumption would stay with us for a long period. Consequently, such measure would not be effective. Based on a recent report released by United Nations and World Bank, existing data indicate that though the number of natural disasters might have increased drastic in tandem with the global temperature increase, population growth and economic development, the casualty from those natural disasters has actually decreased over the last century. Reduction of casualty should be the central goal of hazard mitigation, for life is priceless. Thus, the data from the United Nations and the World Bank suggest that the more effective way for fighting the threatening hazards associated with global warming should be sustainable economic development. Only with the economic development can we have the means to fight against the potential hazards. This is especially true for the poor and underdeveloped countries. At the present time, 95% of the casualties from natural disasters come from South Asia and Africa, the poorest regions of the world. To reduce the casualty should be our first priority. Therefore, sustainable development should be the best strategy for us to face the anthropogenic climate change.

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