臺灣寒流的農漁業衝擊與低溫預警技術研究

The Agricultural and Fishery Losses Due to the Cold Damage and Its Early Warning in Taiwan

10.6149/JDM.202003_9(1).0002

陳淡容(Dan-Rong Chen)；于宜強(Yi-Chiang Yu)；朱容練(Jung-Lien Chu)

寒害 ； 災害管理 ； 大陸冷氣團 ； Cold damage ； Disaster management ； Continental cold air mass

災害防救科技與管理學刊

9卷1期（2020 / 03 / 01）

13 - 24

繁體中文

臺灣雖位於副熱帶地區，冬季寒害仍是我們無法避免的災害事件。發源於西伯利亞的大陸冷氣團是造成臺灣地區低溫的主要因素，當西伯利亞高壓強度愈強時臺灣出現低溫的機會愈大。根據過去寒流事件的分析可以發現，臺灣地區的寒流事件與北極振盪、反聖嬰現象及季內振盪等氣候因素有關，其中與北極振盪負相位關係最為密切。寒流的天氣類型可以分類為「乾冷型」與「濕冷型」二類，分別對農漁業有不同形式的衝擊，由於「濕冷」型天氣因為缺乏太陽日照加熱因素，低溫持續時間比較長，所造成的災害規模也比較大。利用交通部中央氣象局例行發布的預報資料，發展農作物與養殖漁業的低溫預警技術，已經可以及時提供低溫預警資訊加強寒害的災害管理工作。

Located in the subtropics, Taiwan is sometimes hit by cold surges in winter and cannot avoid cold damage. The cold air mass originating from Siberia is the main cause to induce low temperature in Taiwan. When the Siberian high is strong, it increases the chance of the low temperature in Taiwan. According to the analysis of past events, the low temperature events in Taiwan are found related to the climate factors such as the Arctic oscillation (AO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). In particular, low temperature events are very closely related to the negative phase of the AO. In addition, the weather of the cold damage events can be classified into two types: dry-cold and wet-cold. Due to the lack of solar heating effect, in the wet-cold type weather, the duration of low temperature is relatively longer and the scale of the cold damage is larger. The National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) is cooperating with the Council of Agriculture to develop the low temperature early warning system. At present, it is capable of providing low-temperature warning information in time to strengthen the management of cold damage.

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