公司之自願性盈餘預測揭露對報酬－盈餘關係的影響

The Impact of Voluntary Earnings Forecast Disclosure on the Returns-Earnings Relation

10.6995/JLASSCTU.201107.0053

邱瓊玲(Chiung-Lin Chiu)

未來盈餘反應係數 ； 自願性盈餘預測 ； 報酬－盈餘關係 ； Future Earnings Response Coefficient ； Voluntary Earnings Forecast Disclosure ； Returns-Earnings Relation

建國科大社會人文期刊

30卷2期（2011 / 07 / 01）

53 - 66

繁體中文

本研究檢視公司之自願性盈餘預測揭露是否可以提供台灣股票市場投資人有關未來盈餘的訊息？採用未來盈餘反應係數之實證模型來檢測有自顧性盈餘預測揭露的公司與非自願性盈餘預測揭露的公司相比較下，其當年股票報酬與未來盈餘之關係。研究樣本取自台灣經濟新報社，從2000年到2006年七個會計年度在台灣證券交易所之上市公司或證券櫃檯買賣中心之上櫃公司共1,431個公司－年觀察值。研究結果顯示自願性盈餘預測揭露增進強化了股票報酬與未來盈餘之關係。此結果意涵自願性盈餘預測有助於提高盈餘資訊性，而股價更能反應出未來盈餘資訊，反應在實證模型上就是有自願性盈餘預測的公司具有較高的未來盈餘反應係數。

This paper examines whether the companies' voluntary earnings forecast disclosure provide information to investors about future earnings in Taiwanese stocks market. Employing a future earnings response coefficient methodology, I test the association between current stock returns and future earnings for firms that voluntarily disclose their earnings forecast in the current year as compared to firms that disclose their earnings forecast forced by regulations. Using 1,431 firm-year observations collected from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) database for companies listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange or Gre Tai Securities Market dated from 2000 through 2006; I find evidence revealing that voluntary earnings forecast disclosure improves the association between current returns and future earnings. This result implies that a firm's voluntary earnings forecast disclosure reveals believable information that is incorporated into the current returns.

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