奢侈稅對台灣營建產業財務績效與風險值的影響

The Influence of the Luxury Tax on Taiwan's Construction Industry

10.29468/PMR.201109.0033

彭開瓊(Kai-Chiung Peng)；吳思函(Ssu-Hang Wu)

奢侈稅 ； 財務績效 ； 風險值 ； 麥氏生產力指數 ； luxury tax ； Financial Performance ； Value at Risk ； Malmquist Index

物業管理學會論文集

第5屆（2011 / 09 / 03）

33 - 42

繁體中文

本文以56家台灣上市櫃營建公司為研究對象，將奢侈稅公布前（2011年Q1）與奢侈稅公布後（2011年Q2）的兩個跨期資料作分析，首先分析營建產業的財務指標，探討跨期資料的財務績效表現；第二部分，使用變異數-共變異數、歷史模擬法、蒙地卡羅法等三種方法計算風險值；第三部分使用麥氏生產力指數去評估兩季資料的財務績效情形。由於投入項指標與產出項指標的數值過大，因此本文先採用模糊化法處理，讓投入項與產出項指標數值均介於1～2之間，以模糊化後的數據探討財務五力以及風險值的數值。選用麥氏生產力指標對營建公司做績效評估，結果整體財務績效呈現進步的情形；而風險值的部分普遍呈現減少；最後奢侈稅對於營建類股有影響的部分，分別在於淨值成長率、流動比率、淨值週轉率的部分。

This research aims at investigating as subjects the overall performances of 56 listed construction companies in TSE or OTC, before the release of the luxury tax (2011 Q1) and after the announcement of the luxury tax (2011 Q2) of the two cross-period data for analysis, an analysis of the financial indicators of construction industry, of financial performance across the period of performance data; the second part, the use variance – covariance metrics, historical simulation and Monte Carlo simulation three methods to estimate Value-at-Risk of stock prices; the third part, the use Malmquist Index of the two cross-period data for analysis, two quarters of data to assess financial performance of the case.As the input indicators and output indicators of the value is too large, so this first deal with the Fuzzification method, so that input items and output indicators values are between 1 and 2, and to blur the data after the five forces of financial Value at Risk. Malmquist Index productivity indicators for selected construction company to do performance evaluation, the results show the progress of the overall financial performance of the case; and some are showing the value of risk reduction; last luxury tax for the construction sector influential part of the difference is the net growth rate, liquidity ratio, part of the net turnover.