国际资金循环分析的理论模型与应用

The Theoretical Model and Application of the Global Flow of Funds Analysis

10.6338/JDA.200608_1(4).0001

张南(Nan Zhang)

资金循环 ； 国际收支 ； 国际资本流动 ； 国际资金循环分析模型 ； Flow of Funds ； Balance of Payment ； International Capital Flows ； Model of Global Fund Flows

Journal of Data Analysis

1卷4期（2006 / 08 / 01）

1 - 20

簡體中文

本研究的核心在于建立国际资金循环分析的理论模型。本文提出了国际资金循环的概念，明确了国际资金循环分析的理论框架。依据此理论框架，分析考察了中国对外资金循环的特点及问题。然后根据此分析框架的理论延伸，建立了国际资金循环分析的理论模型。最后运用模型展开计量分析，推导出中国对外资金流量中的结构性因素及循环性因素的数量关系，提出了的政策建议。国际资金循环分析模型试图为展开宏观金融分析提供一种新的思路，推动资金流量分析理论与实践的发展。

The Global flow of funds analysis analyzes the characteristics of the financial liquidity of funds. It is tied to investment, savings, the current balance and international capital flows. The main focus of this paper is to build a model of global-fund-flows.This paper presents the general idea of the global-flow-of-funds, and explains the outlines of theoretical analysis. The financial markets contain the debts and credits of funds as a whole, including the total process of financial liquidity. When the items of financial markets are investigated more closely, the markets exhibit inflows of domestic funds, overseas funds by domestic savings and credit loans of banks as fund-sources (fund inflows). On the other hand, there also exist fund supply to the domestic economy, and fund outflows to overseas in fund uses (fund outflows).The theoretical model of the global-flow-of-funds analysis is proposed with such background. This model infers factors of the structure and the recycling in the global flow of funds, and raises important proposals to policy-making. The global-flow-of-funds model is unique in the scope that it offers macro-monetary analysis. Both the theory and the practice of the flow of funds deserve more attention. The model was designed theoretically from 13 structural equations and 3 identity-types. The estimation of the model is made by Three Stage Least Squares method (3SLS).

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