在多国比较中分析世界石油价格变化对中国经济增长的影响

What is the Difference?-The Effect of the Oil Price Fluctuation to China Economic Growth in Comparison with Other countries

10.6338/JDA.200902_4(1).0007

吴丽丽(Li-Ly Wu)；郭惠英(Hui-Ying Guo)；申春兰(Chun-Lan Shen)

石油价格 ； 中国 ； 经济增长 ； the oil price ； GDP ； panel data ； China ； economic growth

Journal of Data Analysis

4卷1期（2009 / 02 / 01）

111 - 122

簡體中文

本文分别运用panel data和SUR比较分析了世界石油价格变动对美国、中国、日本、法国、德国和英国GDP增长率的影响，在国际比较中把握石油价格变动对中国的影响程度和影响方向。我们发现：①美国、日本和中国受石油价格变动影响非常显著，法国、德国和英国受到的影响不显著；②石油价格上涨对中国经济增长有正向影响，对美国却有反向影响，并且对这两个国家的影响滞后期都在一年以上，但是对当期日本经济增长有正向影响。为了解释这种情况，我们认为（1）国内外资源定价体制差异是国际石油价格影响中国经济增长的主要原因；（2）石油价格上涨虽然促进了中国经济增长，但是这种促进以过度消耗中国的能源和资源为代价，并造成严重的环境问题；（3）日本、德国、法国等国家的能源战略和政策值得中国借鉴，中国应加强对这些国家能源政策研究。

Using panel data and SUR, the paper analysis the Effect of the oil price fluctuation to economic growth of America, China, Japan, France, Germany and Britain, and so that the paper can give us the relative effect to China and other countries, and the result is that ①America ,Japan and China are affected more seriously, and we can't see France, Germany and Britain are affected prominently. ② When oil price rose, rate of Chinese growth ascended, and rate of American growth is declined. After that we try to explain the current situation, and we think that ①The difference of mechanism of resource price between China and other countries is the main cause. ②Part of Chinese growth is from consuming more energy and other resources. ③There is referential experience about Japanese, French and Germany energy strategy and policy, and China should pay more attention to these countries.

1. Mork,Anton, Knut,Olsen,Olstein(1994).Macroeconomic responses to oil price increases and decreases in seven OECD countries.Energy Journal,15(4),19-17.
2. 国家经贸委欧洲经济形势考察团(2001)。德国、法国经济形势及其启示。宏观经济研究，53，49-53。