生命表中死因間競爭風險探討

Competing Risks among the Causes of Death of Life Table

10.6338/JDA.200912_4(6).0003

林正祥(Cheng-Hsiang Lin)；楊蘊珊(Yun-Shan Yang)

競爭性風險 ； 獨立風險 ； 死亡風險比 ； 多重遞減生命表 ； Competing risks ； Independent risks ； Risk ratio ； Multiple decrement table

Journal of Data Analysis

4卷6期（2009 / 12 / 01）

31 - 57

繁體中文

死亡並非重複事件，通常以單一原因紀錄死因。死因之間可能存在關聯性，故死因存在與否對其餘死因會產生影響，因此在討論某死因死亡機率的同時，須考慮其餘死因的競爭。死因間競爭性風險乃係某一個體面臨數種風險時，縱使個體已經遭受某些風險，亦可能受到其餘死因風險的威脅。因此在估計某些風險發生的機率時，這些風險可能會受到其它風險的影響。本研究基於生命表中各年齡區間廣義加成性（死亡風險獨立）與死亡均勻分配（死亡風險比固定）之假設，利用已知各年齡區間個體存活資料得到之總死亡機率及粗死亡機率，推算出粗死亡機率、偏粗死亡機率和淨死亡機率間之差異，探討台灣地區重要死因間競爭風險之情況，並做了一些討論。

Human beings are continuously exposed to many risks of death. Because death is not a repetitive event and is usually attributed to a single cause, these risks compete with one another for the life of a person. Competing risks describe the relative susceptibility of individuals in different illness states to other diseases must be considered in any cause-specific mortality analysis. Three types of probability of death (crude probability, net probability and partial crude probability) from a specific cause are introduced for an understanding of the study of survival as well as the application of life table methodology. In this study we discuss the competing risk among the leading causes of death in Taiwan based on the assumption of independent risks and risk-specific intensity is a constant proportion in age interval.

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