后危机时代人民币升值对中国经济影响的CGE分析

An Dynamic CGE Analysis on RMB Appreciation in the Post-crisis Era

10.6338/JDA.201208_7(4).0005

刘亦文(Yi-Wen Liu)；胡宗义(Zong-Yi Hu)

后危机时代 ； 人民币升值 ； CGE模型 ； MCHUGE模型 ； post-crisis era ； RMB appreciation ； CGE model ； MCHUGE model

Journal of Data Analysis

7卷4期（2012 / 08 / 01）

73 - 92

簡體中文

金融危机的爆发，无疑改变了中国经济的发展轨迹。本文仍采用MCHUGE模型，在原有模型数据库基础上，考虑到金融危机的对现实经济的影响，重新建立了一个基准模拟场景，该场景描述了中国的可能经济增长轨道，作为政策评估的基准。仿真结果表明：后危机时代人民币升值3%对中国宏观经济各变量的影响总的来说，影响是十分明显的，将会出现经济紊乱和就业恶化；服装业、纺织业、皮革羊毛业及麻类作物业四个产业受冲击最大；人民币升值对制作行业就业具有一定的正向作用，但对劳动力密集型行业表现出明显的副作用。当前形势下，中国应着力优化产业结构，调整出口产品结构，提高产品附加值，扩大内需。

Doubtlessly, the outbreak of the financial crisis changed the trajectory of China's economic development. Still using the MCHUGE model, but taking into account the financial crisis's impact to the real economy, based on the original model database, this paper re-established a baseline simulation scenario which Describes China's possible economic growth trajectory to be used as baseline for police evaluation. Simulation results show that, generally speaking, in post-crisis era 3% appreciation of RMB' impact to China' macro-economic impact of each variable is prominent. It will lead to disorder of the economic and deterioration of employment. Clothing, textiles, leather and hemp wool industry are affected the most. RMB appreciation would have a positive effect on the manufacture industry but a significant side effect on labor-intensive industries. In the current circumstances, China should focus on optimizing the industrial structure, adjusting the export structure, increasing value-added products and expanding domestic demand.

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