实际汇率与私营部门劳动力流动－基于中美情况的VAR模型分析

Real Interest Rates and the Flow of Private Sector Labor Force-Analysis on VAR Models Based on Cases of China and the U.S.

10.6338/JDA.201210_7(5).0001

阚延明(Yan-Ming Kan)；叶玖盈(MJiu-Ying Ye)；庞蓉(Rong Pang)；刘苗(Miao Liu)

就业量 ； 实际汇率 ； 协整分析 ； VAR模型 ； employment ； real exchange rate ； co-integration analysis ； VAR model

Journal of Data Analysis

7卷5期（2012 / 10 / 01）

1 - 12

簡體中文

近几年来，人民币对美元汇率作为中美双方争端的砝码，地位显得愈发重要。而市场的劳动力配置情况又决定着商品的生产、资本的积累，以及社会的长足进步。如今，市场间的转移成本相比以前明显降低，私营部门的从业者以自身实际工资最大化为考量，在中美实际汇率变动的基础上，对未来中美实际汇率变化的预期就可能导致劳动力在两国市场上流动，从而影响两国生产力水平和社会的发展。本文的目的就在于研究中美实际汇率对于两国私营部门劳动力相互转移的效应，从劳动力的角度出发，研究中美实际汇率的变动对于两国发展水平的影响。这对于中美实际汇率频繁变动的今天，有着重要的意义。在研究方法上，本文利用剔除市场规模（实际GDP）的中美两国的私营部门就业量以及剔除通货膨胀的中美间实际汇率的时间序列数据，利用时间序列数据协整分析和模型估计的有关方法，构建VAR与VEC模型，研究实际汇率与中美两国私营部门间的影响效应。研究结果表明：中美实际汇率与私营部门就业量存在长期均衡关系,美国的私营部门劳动市场对实际汇率的影响比中国更大，实际汇率对美国私营就业量的影响持续而稳定，却对中国私营就业量的影响不大。

The exchange rate between US dollar and Chinese Renminbi has an increasingly prevalent role in dealing with trade conflicts between each other in recent years. As for the allocation of labor force, it decides the production of commodities, the accumulation of capital and the dramatic progress of society as well. Moreover, transition costs among markets have been declining significantly. As a result, migration in employment seems to be possible based on the alteration of real wage. The change in wage can be well reflected on the aggregate production and social development. The aim of this article is to evaluate the effect of real exchange rate on the scale of workforce of both the U.S. and China and subsequently the development of these two countries, which is of great importance in the circumstance of frequent fluctuation of real exchange rate.By using time series data of the employment of private sector in both China and the U.S., eliminating the impact of market scale (real GDP), and by using the time series data of real exchange rates between China and the U.S., eliminating the impact of inflation, the author constructed VAR model and VEC model based on methods of co-integration analysis and model forecast for time series data. The results of the research indicate that there is a long-term balance between the employment of private sector of these two nations and the real exchange rates of China and the U.S. When calculating the influence of these two factors, the author found that there exists a mutual effect between U.S. private sector employment and real exchange rates, while the latter have a minor influence on China private sector employment.

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