基於Logistic模型的眾籌績效研究

A study of the performance of crowdfunding projects-------Based on Logistic Regression Analysis

10.6338/JDA.201512_10(6).0004

卜星宇(Xing-Yu Bu)

眾籌 ； 眾籌績效 ； 回歸模型 ； Crowdfunding ； Performance of crowdfunding ； Logistic regression

Journal of Data Analysis

10卷6期（2015 / 12 / 01）

79 - 105

繁體中文

本篇論文主要是對中國眾籌專案的績效研究。首先對國外已有的眾籌績效文獻進行整理，提取出其提到的影響績效的因素。其次收集中國眾籌專案的實際資料，收集與眾籌績效相關的變量數據，利用Logistic回歸分析最終得到預測單個眾籌項目在未來籌資成功可能性的模型。通過驗證，該模型具有相當好的預測能力。相信這個模型不論對籌資人還是投資人都會有很大的指導意義。

This paper concentrates on the performance of Chinese crowdfunding projects. Firstly it concludes the factors referred on papers before, which may interact the performance of crowdfunding projects. Then it collects a quantity of Chinese crowdfunding projects' data and put such factors into Logistic regression model. The model can predict the possibility of a crowdfunding project well, which will help both fundraisers and investors to make better decisions.

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