Duration Analysis for Retirement Decisions in Taiwan

台灣退休決策之持續期間分析

10.30003/JRM.200811.0002

洪文夏(Wen-Shai Hung)

退休 ； 韋伯模型 ； 時間變動的共變數 ； retirement ； Weibull model ； and time-varying covariates

風險管理學報

10卷3期（2008 / 11 / 01）

259 - 278

英文

本文旨在探討台灣地區中老年人退休行為的決定因素。資料來源是以1996和1999「台灣地區中老年保健與生涯規劃調查」（Survey of Health and Living Status of the Middle Aged Elderly in Taiwan）為研究樣本，此份調查研究對人們的就業史，多有詳實計載。並以韋伯模型（Weibull models）估計勞動者退休行為的風險機率。主要的實證結果發現：第一，若模型沒有考慮時間變動的共變數因素，則年齡較大的勞動者、女性勞動者、外省籍勞動者、符合請領退休金資格的勞動者等，擁有較高的退休風險機率；相反地，較好教育程度的勞動者，則擁有較低的退休風險機率。第二，若模型有考慮時間變動的共變數因素，則顯示健康較差的勞動者擁有較高的退休風險機率；尤其是在其他情況不變下，較差的健康狀況，將迫使勞動者退休的風險機率增加。主要實證結果亦隱含，台灣政府若能多作健康醫療事業與全民健康保險的投資，不只可以改善民眾健康外，亦可幫助勞工延長其在勞動市場的工作年限。

This paper examines the determinants of retirement behaviour among the middle-aged and elderly workers in Taiwan. The data used is from the Survey of Health and Living Status in 1996 and 1999, which contains detailed information on households and individuals, including a retrospective employment history. Weibull models are used to estimate the hazard rate of retirement behaviour. The main empirical results include: First, for the model without time-varying covariates, older workers, female workers, Mainlander workers, and workers with eligible pension have higher hazard rates of retirement, and workers with better education have a lower hazard rate of retirement. Second, for the model with time-varying covariates, workers with poor health have a higher hazard rate of retirement, in particular as workers being in poor health increase the hazard rates of retirement, other things being equal. The implication of the main finding implies that the Taiwan's government may invest more in the health care industry and National Health Insurance. It is not only for improving people's health, but also can help workers extend their time in the labour market.

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